Malmo FF vs BK Hacken Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Malmo FF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Malmo FF, 26% draw, 35% BK Hacken — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Malmo FF at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malmo FF vs BK Hacken
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. OlsenG
- 17J. Stryger LarsenD
- 2S. GregersenD
- 44M. PålssonD
- 25BusanelloD
- 7O. RosengrenM
- 37A. SkogmarM
- 47Theodor LundberghM
- 45A. HoogF
- 32D. GuðjohnsenF
- 29S. HakšabanovićF
- 10A. ChristiansenM
- 27J. DahlinG
- 11E. EkongM
- 9Diego GarcíaF
- 6Y. KarabelyovM
- 4B. KurtulusD
- 53Tarik KaricF
- 54A. SundgrenD
- 42V. JeppssonM
- 99E. BerishaG
- 5B. WembangomoD
- 13H. HilveniusD
- 22F. HelanderD
- 21A. LundkvistD
- 6A. DoumbiaM
- 19D. SegerM
- 20A. SvanbäckM
- 10M. RygaardM
- 11Julius LindbergM
- 9G. LindgrenF
- 18W. UhrströmM
- 1A. LindeG
- 23O. SamuelssonD
- 15L. VäisänenD
- 27C. WawaF
- 32H. IbrahimM
- 8S. HestnesM
- 14M. HaalandM
- 7M. AggerF
Form going into Malmo FF vs BK Hacken
Malmo FF
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Kalmar FF12 October 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK19 September 2026
- W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
- D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026
BK Hacken
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Orgryte IS11 October 2026
- W5-0away to Kalmar FF20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gais5 September 2026
- L1-3Vasteras SK FK29 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Malmo FF had two goals or fewer.
- BK Hacken scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Malmo FF | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malmo FF vs BK Hacken
- 10 May 2026BK Hacken 3–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 1 November 2025BK Hacken 1–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 1 June 2025Malmo FF 3–0 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 29 May 2025Malmo FF 0–0 BK HackenSvenska Cupen
- 22 September 2024Malmo FF 4–0 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 20 May 2024BK Hacken 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Malmo FF and BK Hacken
Malmo FF
GoalsAssists
- E. Botheim103
BK Hacken
GoalsAssists
- G. Lindgren132
- Julius Lindberg98
- A. Svanbäck88
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
BK Hacken won 1–0 at Malmo FF. The model had leaned towards a win for Malmo FF at 39% and given a win for BK Hacken 35%. The goal: adrian svanback 52' for BK Hacken. On expected goals it finished 1.52–1.12.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Malmo FF a 11.6% chance to finish in the top four: 19.3% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 3.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.1%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.
For BK Hacken the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 40.9% going in: 56.5% after a win, 40.0% after a draw, 26.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.5%, 15.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Malmo FF v BK Hacken has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 39% / 26% / 35%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Malmo FF win39%▲ +1
- Draw26%▼ −2
- BK Hacken win35%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.