18 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Orgryte IS vs Gais Allsvenskan prediction & result

Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg
Referee: Oscar Johnson
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Orgryte IS 4-2 Gais.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Orgryte IS, 27% draw, 51% Gais — fair odds of 4.55, 3.70 and 1.96.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gais at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Orgryte IS99%Draw1%Gais0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Liam Filip Anderssonassist: Benjamin laturnus
21'
41'
⚽Anes Cardaklijaassist: Robin Wendin Thomasson
44'
Robin Frej
45'
🔁Rasmus Niklasson Petrovicout: Melvin Andersson
48'
⚽Robin Wendin Thomasson
⚽Tobias Sana (pen)
60'
61'
🔁Robin Wendin Thomassonout: Matteo de Brienne
61'
🔁Christos Graviusout: Henry Sletsjoe
65'
Simon Jørgensen
68'
🔁Samuel Salterout: Nikola·Vasic
🔁Liam Filip Anderssonout: Viktor Ekblom
70'
⚽Viktor Ekblomassist: michael parker
70'
⚽Viktor Ekblomassist: Owen Parker-Price
74'
75'
🔁Oscar Petterssonout: Jonas Lindberg
Daniel Paulson
76'
🔁michael parkerout: Adam Andersson
77'
🔁Charlie Vindehallout: Anton Andreasson
77'
🔁Daniel Paulsonout: William Kenndal
87'
🔁Tobias Sanaout: Johan Hammar
89'

Match stats — Orgryte IS vs Gais

31%Possession69%
15Shots18
6On target4
3Corners6
2.79xG1.42

Goals against chances

Orgryte IS4 from 2.79 xGmore than the chances were worth
Gais2 from 1.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Orgryte IS 4-2-3-1
  • 44H. GustafssonG
  • 33S. LagerlundD
  • 6M. DyrestamD
  • 5C. StyffeD
  • 2M. ParkerD
  • 8B. LaturnusM
  • 7C. VindehallM
  • 14D. PaulsonM
  • 23O. Parker-PriceM
  • 22T. SanaM
  • 9L. AnderssonF
Substitutes
  • 18A. AnderssonD
  • 19A. AndreassonD
  • 3J. AzulayD
  • 29Marlon EbietomereD
  • 32Viktor EkblomF
  • 25J. HammarD
  • 17W. HofvanderF
  • 21W. KenndalM
  • 34A. RahmG
Coach: A. Holmberg
Gais 4-3-3
  • 1M. KrasniqiG
  • 12R. FrejD
  • 22A. CardaklijaD
  • 4O. ÅgrenD
  • 5R. ThomassonD
  • 31C. GraviusM
  • 7J. ÅbergM
  • 14S. JørgensenM
  • 32O. PetterssonF
  • 20S. SalterF
  • 11R. NiklassonF
Substitutes
  • 2M. de BrienneD
  • 33A. HermansenG
  • 25Jonas LindbergM
  • 10H. SletsjøeM
  • 21N. VasićF
  • 6A. WängbergD
  • 16M. AnderssonM
  • 27M. BawaM
  • 24F. BeckmanD
Coach: F. Holmberg

Form going into Orgryte IS vs Gais

Orgryte IS

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to BK Hacken11 October 2026
  • L1-2Sirius19 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
  • D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026

Gais

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Sirius10 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Mjallby AIF20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Djurgardens IF14 September 2026
  • D0-0BK Hacken5 September 2026
  • W4-0IF Brommapojkarna31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Orgryte IS did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Orgryte IS2848163360-2720
9Gais28117103628+840

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Gais

  • 3 May 2026Gais 4–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
  • 3 March 2024Gais 3–0 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
  • 28 September 2023Orgryte IS 1–4 GaisSuperettan
  • 1 June 2023Gais 0–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
  • 29 September 2021Gais 2–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
  • 3 August 2021Orgryte IS 1–0 GaisSuperettan

Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Gais

Orgryte IS

GoalsAssists

  • N. Christoffersson81

Gais

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Orgryte IS beat Gais 4–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Gais at 51% and given a win for Orgryte IS 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Liam Filip Andersson 21' for Orgryte IS, Anes Cardaklija 41' for Gais, Robin Wendin Thomasson 48' for Gais, Tobias Sana (penalty) 60' for Orgryte IS, Viktor Ekblom 70' for Orgryte IS, Viktor Ekblom 74' for Orgryte IS. On expected goals it finished 2.79–1.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orgryte IS a 94.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 87.3% after a win, 94.4% after a draw, 96.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.3%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Orgryte IS v Gais has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 25% / 29% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 22% / 27% / 51%: the biggest move is Gais's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Orgryte IS win22%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Gais win51%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.