18 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Halmstad vs Hammarby FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Orjans Vall, Halmstad
Referee: Sars Joakim
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Halmstad 0-1 Hammarby FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 13% Halmstad, 21% draw, 66% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 7.69, 4.76 and 1.52.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hammarby FF at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Halmstad2%Draw92%Hammarby FF6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Aleksander Nilssonout: Joel Allansson
45'
Rocco Ascone
55'
Tom Trybull
58'
🔁Ajdin Zeljkovicout: Malte Persson
66'
69'
🔁Frank Junior Adjeiout: Oscar Steinke Brånby
🔁Hussein Carneilout: Marvin Illary
81'
🔁Rocco Asconeout: Niilo Mäenpää
81'
81'
🔁Paulos Abrahamout: Nahir Besara
90+1'
⚽Noah Karl Anders Persson

Match stats — Halmstad vs Hammarby FF

28%Possession72%
5Shots23
0On target6
3Corners11
0.33xG1.61

Goals against chances

Halmstad0 from 0.33 xGabout what the chances were worth
Hammarby FF1 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Halmstad 4-1-4-1
  • 1T. RönningG
  • 17A. BomanD
  • 5P. GregorD
  • 16E. TõugjasD
  • 24R. KaibD
  • 28T. TrybullM
  • 11L. ArvidssonM
  • 23A. ZeljkovicM
  • 27R. AsconeM
  • 25A. Damnjanovic NilssonM
  • 14H. CarneilM
Substitutes
  • 6J. AllanssonM
  • 9O. FarajF
  • 19M. IllaryM
  • 22Oliver KapsimalisF
  • 8N. MäenpääM
  • 18Malte PerssonF
  • 4F. SchybergD
  • 3G. WallentinD
  • 35A. WihedG
Coach: S. Baxter
Hammarby FF 4-3-3
  • 27F. JakobssonG
  • 16N. PerssonD
  • 3F. WintherD
  • 6I. FofanaD
  • 2E. SkoglundD
  • 28F. AdjeiM
  • 8M. KarlssonM
  • 5T. TekieM
  • 26M. MadjedF
  • 7P. AbrahamF
  • 9V. LindF
Substitutes
  • 24W. ReneckeD
  • 21Sourou KoneM
  • 34Filip JakobssonM
  • 1W. HahnG
  • 20N. BesaraM
  • 45Felix Gertell BjernvallF
  • 42O. MoczarnyM
  • 31O. Steinke BranbyD
  • 47Hampus ThorssonD
Coach: H. Rydström

Form going into Halmstad vs Hammarby FF

Halmstad

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to IF Elfsborg12 October 2026
  • W2-1AIK Stockholm20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to IFK Goteborg12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Degerfors IF5 September 2026
  • W1-0Kalmar FF29 August 2026

Hammarby FF

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Djurgardens IF11 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Degerfors IF20 September 2026
  • W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
  • L2-3away to AIK Stockholm30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Halmstad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hammarby FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hammarby FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Halmstad2855182052-3220
1Hammarby FF2818466023+3758

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Halmstad vs Hammarby FF

  • 22 April 2026Hammarby FF 1–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 28 September 2025Halmstad 1–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 28 June 2025Hammarby FF 2–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 5 October 2024Hammarby FF 1–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 25 April 2024Halmstad 2–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 12 November 2023Hammarby FF 2–2 HalmstadAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Halmstad and Hammarby FF

Halmstad

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Hammarby FF

GoalsAssists

  • P. Abraham174
  • V. Lind1013
  • M. Madjed82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hammarby FF won 1–0 at Halmstad. The model had made a win for Hammarby FF its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Noah Karl Anders Persson 90+1' for Hammarby FF. On expected goals it finished 0.33–1.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hammarby FF a 95.8% chance to finish in the top four: 97.4% after a win, 93.6% after a draw, 89.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.4%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Halmstad v Hammarby FF has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 18% / 25% / 57% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 13% / 21% / 66%: the biggest move is Hammarby FF's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Halmstad win13%▼ −5
  2. Draw21%▼ −4
  3. Hammarby FF win66%▲ +9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.