6 August 2026, 17:45 UTC

PAOK vs Anderlecht UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Full time0 – 1

Final score: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% PAOK, 20% draw, 26% Anderlecht — fair odds of 1.85, 5.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PAOK at 54% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAOK0%Draw7%Anderlecht93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽M. Cvetkovicassist: E. Llansana
Pantelis Hatzidiakos
38'
🔁P. Hatzidiakosout: A. Elustondo
46'
56'
Moussa Ndiaye
57'
🔁J. Onia Sekeout: O. Antman
58'
Enric Llansana
🔁Jogoout: A. Baba
63'
🔁B. Santamariaout: G. Taylor
63'
🔁Taisonout: A. Jeremejeff
71'
71'
🔁L. Ambrosout: N. Saliba
71'
🔁M. Cvetkovicout: T. Degreef
🔁A. Mythouout: D. Pelkas
83'
Aritz Elustondo
86'
90+1'
Danylo Sikan

Match stats — PAOK vs Anderlecht

65%Possession35%
3On target2
5Corners1

Line-ups

PAOK 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PavlenkaG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 4P. HatzidiakosD
  • 5G. MichailidisD
  • 18JogoD
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 7B. SantamariaM
  • 14A. ZivkovicM
  • 65G. KonstanteliasM
  • 11TaisonM
  • 56A. MythouF
Substitutes
  • 2M. CamaraM
  • 6A. ElustondoD
  • 10D. PelkasM
  • 19A. JeremejeffF
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 23T. LouchetM
  • 25K. ThymianisD
  • 32G. TaylorD
  • 47S. ShoretireF
Coach: Alessio Lisci
Anderlecht 4-3-3
  • 26C. CoosemansG
  • 79A. MaamarD
  • 27L. PetrotD
  • 4G. BianconeD
  • 5M. N'DiayeD
  • 24E. LlansanaM
  • 18L. AmbrosM
  • 55M. KanaD
  • 49J. Onia SekeM
  • 14D. SikanF
  • 9M. Cvetkovic
Substitutes
  • 2Z. Keita
  • 6L. AugustinssonD
  • 11O. AntmanM
  • 13N. SalibaM
  • 32J. HeekerenG
  • 50K. BarryD
  • 53N. CobiellaF
  • 61K. NgaM
  • 62B. VroninksD
Coach: Vitor Bruno

Form going into PAOK vs Anderlecht

PAOK

  • W2-0Dynamo Kyiv30 July 2026
  • W3-2away to Dynamo Kyiv23 July 2026

Anderlecht

  • W3-1Hammarby FF30 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Hammarby FF23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

PAOK and Anderlecht in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
2PAOKSuper League 1430194+59
29AnderlechtUEFA Europa League100112-10

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League 1 · UEFA Europa League

Head-to-head: PAOK vs Anderlecht

  • 6 August 2026PAOK 0–1 AnderlechtUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: PAOK and Anderlecht

PAOK

  • D. Pelkas3 goals
  • A. Živković2 goals2 assists

Anderlecht

  • M. Cvetković1 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.