Akhmat vs FC Rostov Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Akhmat 4-1 FC Rostov.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Akhmat, 30% draw, 21% FC Rostov — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Akhmat at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Akhmat vs FC Rostov
Line-ups
- 1Vadim UlyanovG
- 95Arsen AdamovD
- 4Turpal-Ali IbishevD
- 90Ousmane N’DongD
- 5Klisman CakeD
- 8Miroslav BogosavacD
- 17Egas CacinturaM
- 42Manuel KelianoM
- 11Ismael SilvaM
- 7Lechi SadulaevM
- 77Georgiy MelkadzeF
- 81Maksim SidorovD
- 10Kirill ShchetininM
- 71Rasul MitsaevG
- 88Giorgi SheliaG
- 87Akhmed ElberdovM
- 23Galymzhan KenzhebekM
- 6Kalidou SidibéM
- 97Aleksey KasadzhikovF
- 70Abakar GadzhievM
- 1Rustam YatimovG
- 4Viktor MelekhinD
- 3Oumar SakoD
- 40Ygor NogueiraD
- 87Andrey LangovichD
- 5Yaroslav MikhailovM
- 8Aleksey MironovM
- 10Ivan KomarovM
- 18Konstantin KuchaevM
- 6Olakunle OlusegunM
- 99Timur SuleymanovF
- 34Daniil GolikovG
- 84Artem PetrovG
- 22David SemenchukD
- 59Nikita BabakinD
- 27Danila ProkhinD
- 21Daniil ShantaliyM
- 17Egor GolenkovF
- 73Imran AznaurovF
- 91Anton ShamoninF
Form going into Akhmat vs FC Rostov
Akhmat
- L0-1away to FC Krasnodar15 August 2026
FC Rostov
- D1-1Rubin15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Akhmat | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Akhmat vs FC Rostov
- 21 March 2026Akhmat 1–0 FC RostovPremier League
- 30 August 2025FC Rostov 1–1 AkhmatPremier League
- 12 April 2025Akhmat 2–1 FC RostovPremier League
- 26 October 2024FC Rostov 2–3 AkhmatPremier League
- 9 December 2023Akhmat Grozny 0–0 FC RostovPremier League
- 22 October 2023FC Rostov 3–0 Akhmat GroznyPremier League
Leading scorers: Akhmat and FC Rostov
Akhmat
- Egas Cacintura3 goals1 assists
- G. Melkadze3 goals
- L. Sadulaev2 goals3 assists
FC Rostov
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.