Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Nottingham Forest, 21% draw, 30% Leeds — fair odds of 2.04, 4.76 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nottingham Forest at 49% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26Matz SelsG
- 23JairD
- 31Nikola MilenkovićD
- 5MurilloD
- 34Ola AinaM
- 24James McAteeM
- 6Ibrahim SangaréM
- 3Neco WilliamsM
- 14Dan NdoyeF
- 10Morgan Gibbs-WhiteF
- 11Igor JesusF
- 9Chris WoodF
- 25Luca NetzD
- 21Xaver SchlagerM
- 15Arnaud KalimuendoF
- 12John VictorG
- 2Ousmane DiomandeD
- 44Zach AbbottD
- 8Nicolás DomínguezM
- 7Callum Hudson OdoiF
- 1James TraffordG
- 6Joe RodonD
- 15Jaka BijolD
- 5Tarik MuharemovićD
- 2Jayden BogleM
- 18Anton StachM
- 4Ethan AmpaduM
- 24James JustinM
- 10Harry WilsonF
- 11Brenden AaronsonF
- 9Dominic Calvert-LewinF
- 19Noah OkaforF
- 8Sean LongstaffM
- 23Lucas PerriG
- 65Jayden LienouD
- 30Nico ElvediD
- 50Alfie CresswellM
- 22Ao TanakaM
- 7Daniel JamesF
- 14Lukas NmechaF
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | Leeds | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
- 22 August 2026Nottingham Forest 0–1 LeedsPremier League
- 6 February 2026Leeds 3–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 9 November 2025Nottingham Forest 3–1 LeedsPremier League
- 27 July 2023Nottingham Forest 0–2 LeedsFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2023Leeds 2–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 5 February 2023Nottingham Forest 1–0 LeedsPremier League
Leading scorers: Nottingham Forest and Leeds
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Leeds
- D. Calvert-Lewin2 goals1 assists
- J. Bogle2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.