22 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Brentford vs Tottenham Premier League prediction & result

Brentford Community Stadium, London
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Brentford 3-0 Tottenham.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Brentford, 27% draw, 40% Tottenham — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Tottenham at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brentford99%Draw1%Tottenham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽K. Lewis-Potterassist: M. Sangare
12'
⚽V. Janelt
33'
34'
Conor Gallagher
46'
🔁L. Bergvallout: R. Bentancur
46'
🔁C. Gallagherout: M. Fernandes
⚽M. Kayode
49'
⚽Igor Thiago (pen)
55'
🔁M. Jensenout: Y. Yarmolyuk
67'
🔁D. Ouattaraout: J. Anthony
67'
68'
🔁M. Mooreout: J. Maddison
68'
🔁Richarlisonout: D. Solanke
🔁M. Kayodeout: A. Hickey
76'
🔁M. Sangareout: M. Damsgaard
76'
Vitaly Janelt
78'
🔁I. Thiagoout: C. Wilson
83'
86'
🔁A. Grayout: D. Udogie

Match stats — Brentford vs Tottenham

41%Possession59%
26Shots9
8On target4
7Corners3
3.96xG0.47

Goals against chances

Brentford3 from 3.96 xGless than the chances were worth
Tottenham0 from 0.47 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. KelleherG
  • 33M. KayodeD
  • 20K. AjerD
  • 22N. CollinsD
  • 23K. Lewis-PotterD
  • 27V. JaneltM
  • 18M. SangareM
  • 11D. OuattaraM
  • 8M. JensenM
  • 7K. SchadeM
  • 9I. ThiagoF
Substitutes
  • 12H. R. ValdimarssonG
  • 3R. HenryD
  • 5E. PinnockD
  • 2A. HickeyD
  • 24M. DamsgaardM
  • 6Y. YarmolyukM
  • 44J. SchusterD
  • 19J. AnthonyF
  • 13C. WilsonF
Coach: Keith Andrews
Tottenham 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. KinskyG
  • 14A. GrayD
  • 6J. P. van HeckeD
  • 5M. SenesiD
  • 3A. RobertsonD
  • 16S. TonaliM
  • 15L. BergvallM
  • 47M. MooreM
  • 8C. GallagherM
  • 11M. TelM
  • 9RicharlisonF
Substitutes
  • 39M. DubravkaG
  • 33B. DaviesD
  • 4K. DansoD
  • 13D. UdogieD
  • 10J. MaddisonM
  • 30R. BentancurM
  • 18M. FernandesM
  • 68L. Williams-BarnettM
  • 19D. SolankeF
Coach: Roberto De Zerbi

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Brentford413074+36
17Tottenham402205-52

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Brentford vs Tottenham

  • 22 August 2026Brentford 3–0 TottenhamPremier League
  • 1 January 2026Brentford 0–0 TottenhamPremier League
  • 6 December 2025Tottenham 2–0 BrentfordPremier League
  • 2 February 2025Brentford 0–2 TottenhamPremier League
  • 21 September 2024Tottenham 3–1 BrentfordPremier League
  • 31 January 2024Tottenham 3–2 BrentfordPremier League

Leading scorers: Brentford and Tottenham

Brentford

  • K. Schade3 goals

Tottenham

No league goals yet this season.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.