Fakel vs FC Orenburg Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Fakel 0-0 FC Orenburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Fakel, 33% draw, 19% FC Orenburg — fair odds of 2.08, 3.03 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fakel at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fakel vs FC Orenburg
Line-ups
- 1Daniil FrolkinG
- 55Darko TodorovićD
- 5Albert GabaraevD
- 53Matvey BardachevD
- 44Yuriy ZhuravlevD
- 10Ilnur AlshinD
- 8Abdula BagamaevM
- 23Vyacheslav YakimovM
- 52Ravil NetfullinM
- 11Alexey SutorminM
- 9Axel GnapiF
- 99Nikolay GiorgobianiM
- 20Igor YurganovD
- 97Butta MagomedovM
- 19Belajdi PusiF
- 96Igor ObukhovG
- 35Vyacheslav DorovskikhG
- 22Houdaifa El MahasniD
- 17Anton KovalevM
- 18Kirill SimonovM
- 1Bogdan OvsyannikovG
- 24Maxime SivisD
- 6Jhon PalaciosD
- 5Aleksey TataevD
- 26Emil TsenovD
- 78Ruslan KulM
- 57Evgeniy BolotovM
- 8Damián PueblaM
- 11Egor NazarenkoM
- 20Dmitry RybchinskiyM
- 30Gedeon GuzinaF
- 77Andrey KasadzhikovF
- 7Jersson GonzálezF
- 19Alexandre JesusF
- 63Omar MinatulaevM
- 65Ivan IvashchenkoM
- 95Andrey KhodanovichG
- 2Stanislav PoroykovD
- 59Maksim SyshchenkoD
- 38Artem KasimovD
Form going into Fakel vs FC Orenburg
Fakel
- L0-1away to CSKA Moscow15 August 2026
- D0-0Akhmat10 August 2026
FC Orenburg
- D1-1Lokomotiv14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 11 | FC Orenburg | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fakel vs FC Orenburg
- 15 March 2025FC Orenburg 1–0 FakelPremier League
- 24 August 2024Fakel 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 31 March 2024Fakel Voronezh 0–0 OrenburgPremier League
- 21 October 2023Orenburg 1–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 21 September 2023Orenburg 0–0 Fakel VoronezhCup
- 29 August 2023Fakel Voronezh 0–1 OrenburgCup
Leading scorers: Fakel and FC Orenburg
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
FC Orenburg
- A. Kasadzhikov2 goals1 assists
- R. Kul2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.