7 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva Premier League prediction & result

Akhmat-Arena, Groznyj
Referee: Evgeni Bulanov
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Akhmat 1-0 Rodina Moskva.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Akhmat, 25% draw, 26% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Akhmat at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Akhmat96%Draw4%Rodina Moskva0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Klisman Cakeassist: Ismael Silva
34'
39'
Yordy Reyna
59'
🔁Magomedkhabib Abdusalamovout: Artem Maksimenko
59'
🔁Mickael Nadeout: Artem Meshchaninov
🔁Georgiy Melkadzeout: Mohamed Konate
60'
64'
Andrey Egorychev
70'
🔁Andrey Egorychevout: Kirill Ushatov
70'
🔁Yordy Reynaout: Iker Pozo
Kirill Shchetinin
76'
77'
🔁Brian Mansillaout: Ivan Timoshenko
🔁Kirill Shchetininout: Galymzhan Kenzhebek
80'
🔁Turpal-Ali Ibishevout: Manuel Keliano
85'
86'
Iker Pozo

Match stats — Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva

47%Possession53%
10Shots8
3On target3
5Corners1
1.09xG1.14

Goals against chances

Akhmat1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rodina Moskva0 from 1.14 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Akhmat 4-2-3-1
  • 71R. MitsaevG
  • 95A. AdamovD
  • 6K. SidibéD
  • 5K. CakeD
  • 81M. SidorovD
  • 4T. IbishevM
  • 11Ismael Silva LimaM
  • 20M. SamorodovM
  • 17Egas CacinturaM
  • 10K. ShchetininM
  • 77G. MelkadzeF
Substitutes
  • 1V. UlyanovG
  • 8M. BogosavacD
  • 87A. R. ElberdovM
  • 70A. GadzhievM
  • 97A. KasadzhikovF
  • 42Manuel KelianoM
  • 23G. KenzhebekM
  • 54K. KistenevD
  • 13M. KonatéF
Coach: R. Gusev
Rodina Moskva 4-4-2
  • 13S. VolkovG
  • 2Igor SilvaD
  • 50Rodrigo BecãoD
  • 75M. NadéD
  • 20D. MachadoD
  • 18M. AbdusalamovM
  • 38L. MusaevM
  • 5A. EgorychevM
  • 11B. MansillaM
  • 7G. OnugkhaF
  • 10Y. ReynaF
Substitutes
  • 6R. FishchenkoM
  • 77A. GharibyanF
  • 3L. GoglichidzeD
  • 9A. MaksimenkoF
  • 26A. MeshchaninovD
  • 8Iker PozoM
  • 88A. SokolD
  • 19D. TananeevD
  • 99I. TimoshenkoF
Coach: Jonatan Alba

Form going into Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva

Akhmat

Premier League

  • L0-2away to Dynamo31 October 2026
  • L0-1FC Orenburg23 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Zenit18 October 2026
  • D0-0Baltika11 October 2026

Rodina Moskva

Premier League

  • W2-1FC Krasnodar31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Fakel24 October 2026
  • D2-2FC Orenburg19 October 2026
  • L0-3away to CSKA Moscow11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Akhmat did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Akhmat failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Akhmat conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rodina Moskva scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rodina Moskva conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Rodina Moskva had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Akhmat143561619-314
13Rodina Moskva143381529-1412

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Akhmat and Rodina Moskva

Akhmat

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sadulaev33

Rodina Moskva

GoalsAssists

  • A. Maksimenko31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Akhmat beat Rodina Moskva 1–0. The model had made a win for Akhmat its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Klisman Cake 34' for Akhmat. On expected goals it finished 1.09–1.14.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Akhmat a 32.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 25.8% after a win, 36.5% after a draw, 44.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.8%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

For Rodina Moskva the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 64.0% going in: 50.9% after a win, 63.1% after a draw, 69.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.8%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Akhmat v Rodina Moskva has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 56% / 23% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Akhmat's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Akhmat win49%▼ −7
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. Rodina Moskva win26%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.