Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Nottingham Forest 3-1 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Nottingham Forest, 25% draw, 55% Manchester City — fair odds of 5.00, 4.00 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Manchester City at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26M. SelsG
- 23JairD
- 31N. MilenkovićD
- 5MurilloD
- 27D. MuñozM
- 22R. YatesM
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 19L. DelapF
- 11Igor JesusF
- 15A. KalimuendoF
- 12JohnG
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 25L. NetzD
- 6I. SangaréM
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 14D. NdoyeF
- 9C. WoodF
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 5E. AndersonM
- 17E. FernándezM
- 7I. NdiayeM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 11J. DokuM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 47P. FodenM
- 32A. BouaddiM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 82R. LewisD
- 27Matheus NunesM
- 22Vitor NunesD
- 28G. RulliG
- 37AllanF
- 33N. O'ReillyD
Form going into Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Premier League
- L0-2away to Brentford31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ipswich23 October 2026
- L0-1Arsenal18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Crystal Palace11 October 2026
Manchester City
Premier League
- L0-1Brighton31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Aston Villa24 October 2026
- W3-2Ipswich17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Liverpool11 October 2026
What these results say
- Nottingham Forest did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Nottingham Forest conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Nottingham Forest had two goals or fewer.
- Manchester City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Manchester City conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Manchester City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
- 4 March 2026Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 27 December 2025Nottingham Forest 1–2 Manchester CityPremier League
- 27 April 2025Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester CityFA Cup
- 8 March 2025Nottingham Forest 1–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 4 December 2024Manchester City 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 28 April 2024Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Nottingham Forest and Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland90
- R. Cherki52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nottingham Forest beat Manchester City 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Manchester City at 55% and given a win for Nottingham Forest 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Jair Cunha 6' for Nottingham Forest, Liam Delap 18' for Nottingham Forest, Rayan Cherki 52' for Manchester City, Liam Delap 73' for Nottingham Forest. On expected goals it finished 1.04–1.61.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nottingham Forest a 26.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.6% after a win, 25.4% after a draw, 29.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.6%, 8 points lower than before the match.
For Manchester City the question was the chance to win the league, 23.5% going in: 25.9% after a win, 21.1% after a draw, 18.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.0%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Nottingham Forest v Manchester City has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 19% / 24% / 57% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 20% / 25% / 55%: the biggest move is Manchester City's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Nottingham Forest win20%▲ +1
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Manchester City win55%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.