FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow Premier League prediction & result
Final score: FC Krasnodar 4-2 CSKA Moscow.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% FC Krasnodar, 27% draw, 31% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Krasnodar at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. AgkatsevG
- 98S. PetrovD
- 2M. RodríguezD
- 5JubalD
- 40I. VakhaniaD
- 6Kevin PinaM
- 8Douglas AugustoM
- 18ChristianM
- 10D. VorobjevM
- 11BatxiM
- 9J. CórdobaF
- 23J. BoselliF
- 27E. BurkinM
- 16A. KoryakinG
- 21M. OzdoevM
- 17V. PaltsevD
- 3Vítor TormenaD
- 47D. UtkinM
- 39M. BoriskoG
- 21M. AzziD
- 90M. LukinD
- 4João VictorD
- 79M. ZeaD
- 3D. KrugovoyD
- 10I. OblyakovM
- 31M. KislyakM
- 19I. OleynikovM
- 7Matheus AlvesF
- 32L. GondouF
- 99Nikolay BarovskiyG
- 84A. VakulichM
- 49V. ToropG
- 20Matija PopovicM
- 11T. MusaevF
- 18D. KozlovM
- 37HenriqueM
- 17K. GlebovF
- 62I. FirovF
Form going into FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow
FC Krasnodar
Premier League
- L1-2away to Rodina Moskva31 October 2026
- D1-1Baltika24 October 2026
- D3-3away to Lokomotiv17 October 2026
- L2-3Zenit10 October 2026
CSKA Moscow
Premier League
- D0-0away to FC Orenburg1 November 2026
- W2-0Spartak Moscow25 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dynamo18 October 2026
- W3-0Rodina Moskva11 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Krasnodar did not win any of these 4 matches.
- FC Krasnodar scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Krasnodar conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- CSKA Moscow scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- CSKA Moscow kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 26 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow
- 17 March 2026FC Krasnodar 4–0 CSKA MoscowCup
- 4 March 2026CSKA Moscow 3–1 FC KrasnodarCup
- 3 February 2026CSKA Moscow 2–2 FC KrasnodarFriendlies Clubs
- 7 December 2025FC Krasnodar 3–2 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 31 August 2025CSKA Moscow 1–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 12 July 2025FC Krasnodar 0–1 CSKA MoscowSuper Cup
Leading scorers: FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow
FC Krasnodar
GoalsAssists
- J. Córdoba61
- Batxi53
- Christian34
CSKA Moscow
GoalsAssists
- I. Oblyakov71
- I. Oleynikov34
- K. Glebov31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Krasnodar beat CSKA Moscow 4–2. The model had made a win for FC Krasnodar its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jhon Cordoba 16' for FC Krasnodar, Matvey Kislyak 35' for CSKA Moscow, Joao Batxi 40' for FC Krasnodar, Daniil Utkin 74' for FC Krasnodar, Jhon Cordoba 82' for FC Krasnodar, Kirill Glebov 90+1' for CSKA Moscow. On expected goals it finished 3.00–2.05.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Krasnodar a 45.0% chance to finish in the top four: 55.0% after a win, 41.5% after a draw, 32.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.0%, 10 points higher than before the match.
For CSKA Moscow the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 62.5% going in: 74.0% after a win, 64.9% after a draw, 54.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.4%, 8.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Krasnodar v CSKA Moscow has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is FC Krasnodar's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- FC Krasnodar win42%▼ −6
- Draw27%▲ +1
- CSKA Moscow win31%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.