7 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Fakel vs Dynamo Premier League prediction & result

Fakel Stadium, Voronezh
Referee: Matvey Zaika
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Fakel 1-2 Dynamo.

Before kick-off the model made it 17% Fakel, 25% draw, 58% Dynamo — fair odds of 5.88, 4.00 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dynamo at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fakel2%Draw93%Dynamo5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Daniil Fominassist: Bitello
Darko Todorovic
11'
⚽Vyacheslav Yakimov
12'
Belajdi Pusi
17'
39'
Arthur Gomes
42'
Arthur Gomes
45'
🔁Yaroslav Gladyshevout: Maksim Osipenko
63'
🔁Juan Caceresout: Josue Casimir
🔁Vyacheslav Yakimovout: Abdula Bagamaev
65'
Darko Todorovic
72'
🔁Belajdi Pusiout: Hodaifa El Mhassani
81'
🔁Butta Magomedovout: Axel Gnapi
81'
82'
Josue Casimir
85'
🔁Daniil Fominout: Maximiliano Gutierrez
85'
🔁Rubensout: Ivan Sergeev
Clayton Sampaio Pereira
87'
90+1'
⚽Konstantin Tyukavinassist: Maksim Osipenko
90+4'
🔁Konstantin Tyukavinout: Dmitriy Skopintsev

Match stats — Fakel vs Dynamo

35%Possession65%
13Shots13
5On target3
5Corners3
1.33xG0.76

Goals against chances

Fakel1 from 1.33 xGabout what the chances were worth
Dynamo2 from 0.76 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fakel 5-3-2
  • 96I. ObukhovG
  • 17A. KovalevD
  • 5A. GabaraevD
  • 40ClaytonD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 55D. TodorovićD
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 97B. MagomedovM
  • 19B. PusiF
  • 90A. KoksharovF
Substitutes
  • 44Y. ZhuravlevD
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 25A. BelyaevF
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 22H. El MahasniD
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 99N. GiorgobianiM
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 27S. MagkeevD
Coach: Khasanbi Bidzhiev
Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. LunevG
  • 4J. CáceresD
  • 6R. FernándezD
  • 57David RicardoD
  • 8RubensD
  • 74D. FominM
  • 15D. GlebovM
  • 91Y. GladyshevM
  • 10BitelloM
  • 11Arthur GomesM
  • 70K. TyukavinF
Substitutes
  • 56L. ZaydenzalD
  • 7D. SkopintsevD
  • 33I. SergeevF
  • 1K. RasulovG
  • 55M. OsipenkoD
  • 88V. OkishorM
  • 21A. MiranchukM
  • 60T. MarinkinM
  • 31I. LeshchukG
Coach: S. Schwarz

Form going into Fakel vs Dynamo

Fakel

Premier League

  • L0-1away to Rubin31 October 2026
  • L0-1Rodina Moskva24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Krylia Sovetov17 October 2026
  • L0-5Lokomotiv10 October 2026

Dynamo

Premier League

  • W2-0Akhmat31 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Akron24 October 2026
  • W3-1CSKA Moscow18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Rubin11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Fakel conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Fakel failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Fakel failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dynamo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Dynamo won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Fakel141310923-146
2Dynamo1410132313+1031

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fakel vs Dynamo

  • 5 August 2026Fakel 0–1 DynamoCup
  • 24 November 2024Fakel 1–1 DynamoPremier League
  • 20 July 2024Dynamo 3–1 FakelPremier League
  • 10 December 2023Fakel Voronezh 1–1 Dinamo MoscowPremier League
  • 8 October 2023Dinamo Moscow 0–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 28 April 2023Dinamo Moscow 0–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League

Leading scorers: Fakel and Dynamo

Fakel

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tyukavin71
  • V. Okishor32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dynamo won 2–1 at Fakel. The model had made a win for Dynamo its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Daniil Fomin 3' for Dynamo, Vyacheslav Yakimov 12' for Fakel, Konstantin Tyukavin 90+1' for Dynamo. Sent off: Arthur Gomes (Dynamo) 42', Darko Todorovic (Fakel) 72'. On expected goals it finished 1.33–0.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fakel a 96.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 93.7% after a win, 96.6% after a draw, 98.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 98.0%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

For Dynamo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 85.6% going in: 88.7% after a win, 82.9% after a draw, 78.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.7%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fakel v Dynamo has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 19% / 24% / 57% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 17% / 25% / 58%: the biggest move is Fakel's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Fakel win17%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Dynamo win58%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.