7 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Leeds vs Tottenham Premier League prediction & result

Elland Road, Leeds
Referee: John Brooks
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Leeds 1-0 Tottenham.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Leeds, 30% draw, 29% Tottenham — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Leeds at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Leeds97%Draw3%Tottenham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Micky van de Ven
Sean Longstaff
22'
43'
🔁Mathys Telout: Dominic Solanke
🔁Gabriel Gudmundssonout: Melvin Bard
45'
51'
Pedro Porro
51'
Roberto De Zerbi
65'
🔁Pedro Porroout: Conor Gallagher
65'
🔁Omar Marmoushout: Dejan Kulusevski
65'
🔁Mateus Fernandesout: Rodrigo Bentancur
🔁Ao Tanakaout: Harry Wilson
77'
🔁Lukas Nmechaout: Noah Okafor
77'
⚽Noah Okafor
79'
Noah Okafor
80'
83'
🔁Mohammed Kudusout: Luca Jamie Williams-Barnett
88'
Sandro Tonali
🔁Jayden Bogleout: Joe Rodon
90+3'
🔁Sean Longstaffout: Ilia Gruev
90+3'

Match stats — Leeds vs Tottenham

39%Possession61%
16Shots7
4On target4
6Corners4
2.05xG0.8

Goals against chances

Leeds1 from 2.05 xGless than the chances were worth
Tottenham0 from 0.80 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Leeds 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. TraffordG
  • 24J. JustinD
  • 30N. ElvediD
  • 5T. MuharemovićD
  • 2J. BogleM
  • 4E. AmpaduM
  • 22A. TanakaM
  • 3G. GudmundssonM
  • 8S. LongstaffM
  • 14L. NmechaM
  • 9D. Calvert-LewinF
Substitutes
  • 19N. OkaforF
  • 11B. AaronsonM
  • 10H. WilsonF
  • 7D. JamesF
  • 44I. GruevM
  • 6J. RodonD
  • 15J. BijolD
  • 26M. BardD
  • 16M. ZettererG
Coach: D. Farke
Tottenham 4-3-3
  • 31A. KinskýG
  • 23Pedro PorroD
  • 6J. van HeckeD
  • 37M. van de VenD
  • 3A. RobertsonD
  • 16S. TonaliM
  • 18Mateus FernandesM
  • 14A. GrayM
  • 20M. KudusF
  • 22Omar MarmoushF
  • 11M. TelF
Substitutes
  • 19D. SolankeF
  • 68L. Williams-BarnettM
  • 30R. BentancurM
  • 21D. KulusevskiM
  • 10J. MaddisonM
  • 8C. GallagherM
  • 33B. DaviesD
  • 5M. SenesiD
  • 46Luca GunterG
Coach: R. De Zerbi

Form going into Leeds vs Tottenham

Leeds

Premier League

  • L0-2away to Bournemouth31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Sunderland25 October 2026
  • D1-1Manchester United18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Arsenal10 October 2026

Tottenham

Premier League

  • W2-0Crystal Palace31 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Chelsea24 October 2026
  • W3-1Coventry19 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Manchester United10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Leeds did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Leeds conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Leeds had two goals or fewer.
  • Tottenham went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Tottenham scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Tottenham won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Leeds10352108+214
11Tottenham103341011-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Leeds vs Tottenham

  • 11 May 2026Tottenham 1–1 LeedsPremier League
  • 4 October 2025Leeds 1–2 TottenhamPremier League
  • 28 May 2023Leeds 1–4 TottenhamPremier League
  • 12 November 2022Tottenham 4–3 LeedsPremier League
  • 26 February 2022Leeds 0–4 TottenhamPremier League
  • 21 November 2021Tottenham 2–1 LeedsPremier League

The full Leeds vs Tottenham record →

Leading scorers: Leeds and Tottenham

Leeds

GoalsAssists

  • D. Calvert-Lewin31

Tottenham

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Leeds beat Tottenham 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Leeds at 41%. The goal: Noah Okafor 79' for Leeds. On expected goals it finished 2.05–0.80.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leeds a 5.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.0% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.0%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

For Tottenham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.1% going in: 4.3% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.6%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Leeds v Tottenham has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Leeds's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Leeds win41%▼ −7
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. Tottenham win29%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.