24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

FC Krasnodar vs Baltika Premier League prediction & result

Ozon Arena, Krasnodar
Referee: Andrey Prokopov, Russia
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FC Krasnodar 1-1 Baltika.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% FC Krasnodar, 27% draw, 25% Baltika — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Krasnodar at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Krasnodar97%Draw3%Baltika0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Eduardo Anderson
⚽Jhon Cordobaassist: Ilya Vakhania
30'
57'
🔁Maksim Petrovout: Fahd Moufi
57'
🔁Ilya Petrovout: Ivan Belikov
58'
Eldar Ćivić
Ilya Vakhania
62'
Christian
67'
🔁Daniil Utkinout: Magomed Ozdoev
69'
73'
🔁Konstantin Shiltsovout: Vladislav Pospelov
73'
🔁Brayan Gilout: Chinonso Offor
🔁Christianout: Juan Manuel Boselli
75'
🔁Ilya Vakhaniaout: Sergey Petrov
77'
81'
🔁Eldar Ćivićout: Ilya Porokhov
Lucas Olaza
85'
Murad Musaev
89'
90+3'
⚽Loris Mouyokoloassist: Vladislav Pospelov

Match stats — FC Krasnodar vs Baltika

63%Possession37%
9Shots13
5On target4
3Corners6
0.92xG0.83

Goals against chances

FC Krasnodar1 from 0.92 xGabout what the chances were worth
Baltika1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. AgkatsevG
  • 40I. VakhaniaD
  • 3Vítor TormenaD
  • 5JubalD
  • 15L. OlazaD
  • 53A. ChernikovM
  • 6Kevin PinaM
  • 18ChristianM
  • 47D. UtkinM
  • 11BatxiM
  • 9J. CórdobaF
Substitutes
  • 23J. BoselliF
  • 27E. BurkinM
  • 16A. KoryakinG
  • 21M. OzdoevM
  • 17V. PaltsevD
  • 98S. PetrovD
  • 2M. RodríguezD
  • 10D. VorobjevF
Coach: M. Musaev
Baltika 5-4-1
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 2S. VaratynovD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 77E. ĆivićD
  • 73M. PetrovM
  • 8A. MendelM
  • 10I. PetrovM
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 91B. GilF
Substitutes
  • 3I. KirschD
  • 68M. RyadnoD
  • 42V. PospelovM
  • 11I. PorokhovF
  • 9C. OfforF
  • 5A. MouridM
  • 18F. MoufiD
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 81I. KukushkinG
Coach: A. Talalaev

Form going into FC Krasnodar vs Baltika

FC Krasnodar

Premier League

  • D3-3away to Lokomotiv17 October 2026
  • L2-3Zenit10 October 2026

Baltika

Premier League

  • D0-0FC Rostov18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4FC Krasnodar147522518+726
9Baltika144551715+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Krasnodar vs Baltika

  • 19 July 2026FC Krasnodar 1–1 BaltikaFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 April 2026FC Krasnodar 2–2 BaltikaPremier League
  • 9 November 2025Baltika 1–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 24 April 2024Krasnodar 3–2 BaltikaPremier League
  • 21 October 2023Baltika 2–2 KrasnodarPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Krasnodar and Baltika

FC Krasnodar

GoalsAssists

  • J. Córdoba61
  • Batxi53
  • Christian34

Baltika

GoalsAssists

  • B. Gil51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Krasnodar and Baltika drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Krasnodar at 48% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jhon Cordoba 30' for FC Krasnodar, Loris Mouyokolo 90+3' for Baltika. On expected goals it finished 0.92–0.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Krasnodar a 68.6% chance to finish in the top four: 74.0% after a win, 66.6% after a draw, 58.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 66.6%, 2 points lower than before the match.

For Baltika the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.7% going in: 9.6% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, 3.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.8%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Krasnodar v Baltika has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is FC Krasnodar's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. FC Krasnodar win48%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Baltika win25%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.