24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Coventry vs Fulham Premier League prediction & result

Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Referee: Adam Herczeg, England
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Coventry 0-1 Fulham.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Coventry, 29% draw, 37% Fulham — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fulham at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coventry0%Draw4%Fulham96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
Shea Charles
🔁Bobby Thomasout: Stephen Mfuni
60'
63'
🔁Hugo Larssonout: Sander Berge
🔁Caleb Yirenkyiout: Frank Onyeka
67'
🔁Sidiki Cherifout: Taiwo Awoniyi
67'
🔁Brandon Thomas-Asanteout: Ephron Mason-Clark
67'
74'
🔁Gonzalo Garcíaout: Rodrigo Muniz
74'
🔁Alex Iwobiout: Cesar Palacios Perez
80'
⚽Oscar Bobbassist: Josh King
81'
🔁Oscar Bobbout: Kenny Tete
81'
🔁Josh Kingout: Tom Cairney
82'
Antonee Robinson
🔁Tatsuhiro Sakamotoout: Gustavo Hamer
86'

Match stats — Coventry vs Fulham

36%Possession64%
13Shots12
2On target3
4Corners6
0.58xG0.61

Goals against chances

Coventry0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Fulham1 from 0.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Coventry 4-2-3-1
  • 19C. RushworthG
  • 27M. van EwijkD
  • 4B. ThomasD
  • 2E. PinnockD
  • 3J. DasilvaD
  • 6M. GrimesM
  • 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
  • 7T. SakamotoM
  • 5J. RudoniM
  • 23B. Thomas-AsanteM
  • 49S. CherifF
Substitutes
  • 25D. BentleyG
  • 12S. MfuniD
  • 20K. Kesler-HaydenD
  • 10E. Mason-ClarkM
  • 16F. OnyekaM
  • 29V. TorpM
  • 38G. HamerM
  • 14T. AwoniyiF
  • 34Y. GbohoF
Coach: F. Lampard
Fulham 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. LenoG
  • 21T. CastagneD
  • 22D. AffengruberD
  • 3C. BasseyD
  • 33A. RobinsonD
  • 15H. LarssonM
  • 19S. CharlesM
  • 14Oscar BobbM
  • 24Joshua KingM
  • 17A. IwobiM
  • 7Gonzalo GarcíaF
Substitutes
  • 2K. TeteD
  • 5J. AndersenD
  • 16S. BergeM
  • 10T. CairneyM
  • 20Manuel ÁngelM
  • 11KevinF
  • 8César PalaciosM
  • 9Rodrigo MunizF
  • 23B. LecomteG
Coach: Álvaro Arbeloa

Form going into Coventry vs Fulham

Coventry

Premier League

  • L1-3away to Tottenham19 October 2026
  • W4-1Newcastle12 October 2026

Fulham

Premier League

  • W1-0Hull City17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Coventry103071019-99
15Fulham102441012-210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Coventry vs Fulham

  • 10 April 2022Fulham 1–3 CoventryChampionship
  • 2 October 2021Coventry 4–1 FulhamChampionship

The result against the call

Fulham won 1–0 at Coventry. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Fulham at 37%. The goal: Oscar Bobb 80' for Fulham. On expected goals it finished 0.58–0.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Coventry a 45.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 38.7% after a win, 47.0% after a draw, 51.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.4%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.

For Fulham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 31.4% going in: 25.3% after a win, 33.1% after a draw, 35.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.3%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Coventry v Fulham has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 27% / 31% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 34% / 29% / 37%: the biggest move is Coventry's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Coventry win34%▲ +7
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Fulham win37%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.