Zalaegerszegi TE vs Kisvarda FC NB I prediction & result
Final score: Zalaegerszegi TE 1-1 Kisvarda FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Zalaegerszegi TE, 29% draw, 32% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Zalaegerszegi TE at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zalaegerszegi TE vs Kisvarda FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. Gundel-TakácsG
- 8A. CsonkaD
- 13T. PeñalbaD
- 33Antonio DiogoD
- 18CalderónD
- 77Arthur HenriqueM
- 30F. AmatoM
- 6E. KujovićM
- 23MaxM
- 9Matheus MachadoF
- 7Danylo KrevsunF
- 32L. AlfonsoF
- 74B. BabosF
- 2Aiden Joshua HarangiD
- 10B. KissM
- 80MarlonF
- 17Teixeira GuilhermeF
- 3Fernando José Vera GarcíaD
- 14Jude MadakiM
- 37Pietro Musto GreccoG
- 23I. PopovichG
- 55K. NagyD
- 42T. LippaiD
- 25B. ŠerbečićD
- 10D. SoltészD
- 29B. BíróM
- 80H. MbockM
- 22A. YougaM
- 37Miroslav BabjakM
- 99T. YordanovF
- 14B. MelnykF
- 86S. NovothnyF
- 27J. MešanovićF
- 18K. KörmendiM
- 24C. HercM
- 70L. SzőrM
- 21G. SzikszaiF
- 32Z. PappG
- 45T. A. BalogunF
- 4M. ChlumeckýD
Form going into Zalaegerszegi TE vs Kisvarda FC
Zalaegerszegi TE
NB I
- L0-3away to Debreceni VSC18 October 2026
- W5-1Nyiregyhaza11 October 2026
Kisvarda FC
NB I
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vasas10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Kisvarda FC | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zalaegerszegi TE vs Kisvarda FC
- 4 April 2026Zalaegerszegi TE 2–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 14 December 2025Kisvarda FC 3–3 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 30 August 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 2 March 2024Kisvarda FC 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 5 November 2023Kisvarda FC 0–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 30 July 2023Zalaegerszegi TE 0–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
Leading scorers: Zalaegerszegi TE and Kisvarda FC
Zalaegerszegi TE
GoalsAssists
- Arthur Henrique30
Kisvarda FC
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Zalaegerszegi TE and Kisvarda FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Zalaegerszegi TE at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Emin Kujovic 58' for Zalaegerszegi TE, Tonislav Yordanov 71' for Kisvarda FC. On expected goals it finished 0.68–1.24.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zalaegerszegi TE a 37.5% chance to finish in the bottom two: 30.9% after a win, 39.1% after a draw, 45.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 39.1%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
For Kisvarda FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 28.4% going in: 19.9% after a win, 28.5% after a draw, 33.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 28.5%.
Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Zalaegerszegi TE v Kisvarda FC has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Zalaegerszegi TE win39%▲ +1
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Kisvarda FC win32%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.