24 October 2026, 14:15 UTC

Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov Premier League prediction & result

Ak Bars Arena, Kazan
Referee: Matvey Zaika
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Rubin 0-2 Krylia Sovetov.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Rubin, 29% draw, 30% Krylia Sovetov — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rubin at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Fernando Constanza
•Eddie Salcedo
31'
Eddie Salcedo
38'
Jakhongir Urozov
48'
62'
🔁Mihajlo Banjacout: Vitaliy Shitov
62'
🔁Nikolay Rasskazovout: Dani Fernández
71'
⚽Igor Vujacic (OG)
🔁Veldin Hodzaout: Ruslan Bezrukov
72'
🔁Ilya Rozhkovout: Daniil Kuznetsov
72'
76'
•Dani Fernández
77'
⚽Amar Rahmanović (pen)
🔁Ugochukwu Iwuout: Bogdan Jočić
81'
🔁Nazmi Gripshiout: Dardan Shabanhaxhaj
81'
83'
🔁Amar Rahmanovićout: Islam Chesnokov
83'
🔁Maksim Vityugovout: Dominik Oroz
87'
🔁Nikita Saltykovout: Kazbek Mukailov
88'
Dominik Oroz
90+4'
Islam Chesnokov

Match stats — Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov

57%Possession43%
7Shots5
3On target1
5Corners3
0.27xG1.02

Goals against chances

Rubin0 from 0.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
Krylia Sovetov2 from 1.02 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rubin 5-3-2
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 12A. ArroyoD
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 22V. HodžaM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 10E. SalcedoF
  • 11N. GripshiF
Substitutes
  • 7U. BabaevF
  • 99D. ShabanhaxhajF
  • 71I. SamoshnikovD
  • 23R. BezrukovD
  • 27A. GritsaenkoD
  • 8B. JočićM
  • 70D. KabutovD
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 44D. KuznetsovM
Coach: Franc Artiga
Krylia Sovetov 4-2-3-1
  • 80N. KokarevG
  • 22Fernando CostanzaD
  • 23N. ChernovD
  • 47S. BozhinD
  • 2K. PecheninD
  • 8M. VityugovM
  • 4Y. GorshkovM
  • 15N. RasskazovM
  • 7M. BanjacM
  • 14N. SaltykovM
  • 11A. RahmanovićF
Substitutes
  • 73V. ShitovF
  • 5D. OrozD
  • 67Kazbek MukailovF
  • 18I. LepskiyD
  • 39E. FrolovG
  • 72Dani FernándezD
  • 17I. ChesnokovM
  • 97I. AkhmetovM
  • 20K. StolbovM
Coach: S. Bulatov

Form going into Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov

Rubin

Premier League

  • L0-4away to Spartak Moscow18 October 2026
  • L0-1Dynamo11 October 2026

Krylia Sovetov

Premier League

  • L1-2Fakel17 October 2026
  • D1-1Spartak Moscow10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Rubin144641418-418
7Krylia Sovetov144641920-118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov

  • 11 July 2026Rubin 2–0 Krylia SovetovFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 March 2026Krylia Sovetov 0–0 RubinPremier League
  • 4 October 2025Rubin 2–0 Krylia SovetovPremier League
  • 5 April 2025Krylia Sovetov 1–1 RubinPremier League
  • 13 September 2024Rubin 0–2 Krylia SovetovPremier League
  • 4 July 2024Rubin 2–2 Krylia SovetovFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rubin and Krylia Sovetov

Rubin

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Krylia Sovetov

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rahmanović50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Krylia Sovetov won 2–0 at Rubin. The model had leaned towards a win for Rubin at 41% and given a win for Krylia Sovetov 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Igor Vujacic (own goal) 71' for Krylia Sovetov, Amar Rahmanović (penalty) 77' for Krylia Sovetov. On expected goals it finished 0.27–1.02.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rubin a 23.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 15.9% after a win, 26.1% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.2%, 6.7 points higher than before the match.

For Krylia Sovetov the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 26.4% going in: 18.2% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 31.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.2%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rubin v Krylia Sovetov has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Rubin's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Rubin win41%▼ −5
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Krylia Sovetov win30%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.