24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Fakel vs Rodina Moskva Premier League prediction & result

Fakel Stadium, Voronezh
Referee: Ivan Abrosimov, Russia
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Fakel 0-1 Rodina Moskva.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Fakel, 26% draw, 30% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fakel at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fakel0%Draw5%Rodina Moskva95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

43'
⚽German Onugkha (pen)
🔁Darko Todorovicout: Anton Kovalev
45'
Clayton Sampaio Pereira
51'
58'
🔁Andrey Egorychevout: Iker Pozo
60'
Leon Musaev
Albert Gabaraev
61'
🔁Belajdi Pusiout: Maksim Turishchev
63'
🔁Aleksandr Koksharovout: Axel Gnapi
63'
67'
🔁Magomedkhabib Abdusalamovout: Artem Maksimenko
67'
🔁Leon Musaevout: Ruslan Fishchenko
🔁Butta Magomedovout: Ravil Netfullin
73'
Anton Kovalev
76'
76'
Ruslan Fishchenko
76'
German Onugkha
83'
🔁Rodrigo Becãoout: Artur Gharibyan
83'
🔁Soltmurad Bakaevout: Dmitriy Tananeev
🔁Vyacheslav Yakimovout: Nikolay Giorgobiani
87'
90'
Artem Meshchaninov
Abdula Bagamaev
90+2'
90+6'
Iker Pozo

Match stats — Fakel vs Rodina Moskva

59%Possession41%
6Shots8
0On target1
1Corners4
0.64xG1.2

Goals against chances

Fakel0 from 0.64 xGless than the chances were worth
Rodina Moskva1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fakel 5-3-2
  • 96I. ObukhovG
  • 55D. TodorovićD
  • 5A. GabaraevD
  • 40ClaytonD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 10I. AlshinD
  • 97B. MagomedovM
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 90A. KoksharovF
  • 19B. PusiF
Substitutes
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 22H. El MahasniD
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 99N. GiorgobianiM
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 17A. KovalevM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 18K. SimonovM
  • 7M. TurishchevF
Coach: Aleksey Rebko
Rodina Moskva 5-4-1
  • 13S. VolkovG
  • 2Igor SilvaD
  • 50Rodrigo BecãoD
  • 38L. MusaevD
  • 26A. MeshchaninovD
  • 20D. MachadoD
  • 18M. AbdusalamovM
  • 10Y. ReynaM
  • 5A. EgorychevM
  • 17S. BakaevM
  • 7G. OnugkhaF
Substitutes
  • 23K. UshatovM
  • 99I. TimoshenkoF
  • 19D. TananeevD
  • 8Iker PozoM
  • 75M. NadéD
  • 9A. MaksimenkoF
  • 3L. GoglichidzeD
  • 77A. GharibyanF
  • 6R. FishchenkoM
Coach: Jonatan Alba

Form going into Fakel vs Rodina Moskva

Fakel

Premier League

  • W2-1away to Krylia Sovetov17 October 2026
  • L0-5Lokomotiv10 October 2026

Rodina Moskva

Premier League

  • D2-2FC Orenburg19 October 2026
  • L0-3away to CSKA Moscow11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Fakel141310923-146
13Rodina Moskva143381529-1412

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fakel vs Rodina Moskva

  • 13 April 2026Fakel 1–3 Rodina MoskvaFirst League
  • 15 September 2025Rodina Moskva 2–0 FakelFirst League

Leading scorers: Fakel and Rodina Moskva

Fakel

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Rodina Moskva

GoalsAssists

  • A. Maksimenko31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rodina Moskva won 1–0 at Fakel. The model had leaned towards a win for Fakel at 44% and given a win for Rodina Moskva 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: German Onugkha (penalty) 43' for Rodina Moskva. On expected goals it finished 0.64–1.20.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fakel a 80.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 76.2% after a win, 84.0% after a draw, 85.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.6%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

For Rodina Moskva the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 90.8% going in: 86.8% after a win, 90.8% after a draw, 93.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.8%, 4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fakel v Rodina Moskva has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is Rodina Moskva's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Fakel win44%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Rodina Moskva win30%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.