Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah Stars League prediction & result
Final score: Al Ahli Doha 0-3 Al Wakrah.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Al Ahli Doha, 23% draw, 32% Al Wakrah — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al Ahli Doha at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Mohamed LinglizG
- 41Ahmed ReyedD
- 8Talal Al ShilaD
- 16R. TihiD
- 88A. AmraouiD
- 33D. FettouhiM
- 77Ismaeel MohammadM
- 27B. BourigeaudM
- 7J. DraxlerM
- 23N. SlitiM
- 10Erik ExpósitoF
- 18Jassem MohammedD
- 70Younis AbdelrahmanF
- 53Saleh Ahmed QassemG
- 20Hamad MansourM
- 12Ghanem Al MinhaliD
- 6Luiz CearáM
- 75Nasser Adil BabikerD
- 49Z. SassiD
- 5W. Troost-EkongD
- 99Omair Al SayedG
- 16Nabil IrfanD
- 3P. CalioneD
- 2Lucas MendesD
- 12Murad Naji HusseinD
- 7A. AssalM
- 93A. LaïdouniM
- 6Omar Al OsadM
- 10Gelson DalaM
- 75A. ZouhzouhF
- 18Luis AlbertoF
- 66Mohamed SimoD
- 19Tamer SeyamF
- 5Ahmed FadelM
- 34Moayed HassanF
- 22Yousef Mohammed RamadanG
- 14A. ZakyM
- 17R. BoussafiF
- 26Abdollah Ali SaeiM
- 15Almahdi AliD
Form going into Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah
Al Ahli Doha
Stars League
- W5-0Al-Sailiya10 October 2026
Al Wakrah
Stars League
- W3-2Al-Gharafa8 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Wakrah | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ahli Doha vs Al Wakrah
- 6 February 2026Al Wakrah 3–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 11 November 2025Al Ahli Doha 2–2 Al WakrahQSL Cup
- 13 September 2025Al Ahli Doha 5–3 Al WakrahStars League
- 11 January 2025Al Ahli Doha 6–3 Al WakrahStars League
- 15 November 2024Al Wakrah 3–1 Al Ahli DohaQSL Cup
Leading scorers: Al Ahli Doha and Al Wakrah
Al Ahli Doha
GoalsAssists
- N. Sliti32
- Erik Expósito31
Al Wakrah
GoalsAssists
- B. Bounedjah40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Wakrah won 3–0 at Al Ahli Doha. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Ahli Doha at 45% and given a win for Al Wakrah 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Amine Zouhzouh (penalty) 18' for Al Wakrah, Amine Zouhzouh 62' for Al Wakrah, Amine Zouhzouh 90' for Al Wakrah. On expected goals it finished 0.68–2.00.
How the call on Al Ahli Doha v Al Wakrah has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 23% / 32%: the biggest move is Al Ahli Doha's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Al Ahli Doha win45%▲ +8
- Draw23%▼ −4
- Al Wakrah win32%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.