17 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon Pro League prediction & result

Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Riyadh
Referee: Faisal Suleiman Al-Balawi
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Al Diriyah 1-1 Al Taawon.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Al Diriyah, 30% draw, 26% Al Taawon — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Diriyah at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Diriyah4%Draw93%Al Taawon3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Clayton diandy
20'
Clayton diandy
22'
Enzo Millot
33'
⚽Clayton diandyassist: Óscar Rodríguez
50'
Hussain Al-Sabiyani
55'
58'
🔁Younes El Bahraouiout: Rakan Al Tulayhi
🔁Hussain Al-Sabiyaniout: Mohamed Hameran
65'
🔁Clayton diandyout: Meshari Fahad Al Nemer
65'
65'
⚽Abderrazak Hamdallahassist: Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi
74'
Faris Al-Ghamdi
⚽Darwin Nuñez (pen)
78'
Bruno Miguel Silva do Nascimento
79'
84'
🔁Faris Al-Ghamdiout: Parfait Guiagon
84'
🔁Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibiout: Nedim Bajrami
84'
🔁Abdulrahman Hendiout: Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji
🔁Abdulaziz Al Farajout: Taher Wadi
86'
🔁Óscar Rodríguezout: Qasem Lajami
86'
90+6'
🔁Muteb Al-Mufarrijout: Nasser Al-Haleel

Match stats — Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon

59%Possession41%
9Shots9
1On target2
4Corners2
1.97xG0.88

Goals against chances

Al Diriyah1 from 1.97 xGless than the chances were worth
Al Taawon1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Diriyah 4-3-3
  • 97Amin Al BukhariG
  • 2Abdulaziz Al FarajD
  • 19B. DjimsitiD
  • 99C. MbembaD
  • 16Hussain Al SibyaniD
  • 14Óscar RodríguezM
  • 5I. GueyeM
  • 20E. MillotM
  • 17C. DiandyF
  • 29D. NúñezF
  • 10A. BoulbinaF
Substitutes
  • 52Hussain Al QahtaniM
  • 75Meshari Al NemerF
  • 88Abdulelah Al MalkiM
  • 34Mansour Hibatullah Al SibyaniG
  • 32Abdullah Al ZaidF
  • 6Sultan Al FarhanM
  • 21M. HameranD
  • 87Qassem LajamiD
  • 12T. WadiD
Coach: Bruno Lage
Al Taawon 3-4-2-1
  • 1MailsonG
  • 40Ibrahim MahnashiD
  • 5Z. BelaïdD
  • 32Muteb Al MufarrijD
  • 70A. HendiM
  • 16Faris Al GhamdiM
  • 18A. El MahdiouiM
  • 88M. PetkovM
  • 7Mohammed Al KuwaykibiM
  • 47Y. El BahraouiM
  • 9A. Hamed AllahF
Substitutes
  • 4Nasser Al HaleelD
  • 17Mohammed Al AqelF
  • 6Mohammed Bassam Al HurayjiD
  • 30Abdullah Al JadaniG
  • 45Mohammed Al SaediM
  • 93Awn Al SaluliD
  • 23Rakan Al TulayhiM
  • 10N. BajramiM
  • 8P. GuiagonF
Coach: V. Rašović

Form going into Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon

Al Diriyah

Pro League

  • L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026

Al Taawon

Pro League

  • L0-3away to Al Shabab11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Al Diriyah124351013-315
17Al Taawon12057620-145

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Al Diriyah and Al Taawon drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Diriyah at 44% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Clayton diandy 50' for Al Diriyah, Abderrazak Hamdallah 65' for Al Taawon. On expected goals it finished 1.97–0.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Taawon a 50.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 41.9% after a win, 49.8% after a draw, 55.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 49.8%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.