17 October 2026, 15:40 UTC

NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq Pro League prediction & result

King Khalid Sports City, Tabuk
Referee: Ahmad Al Rumaikhani
Full time0 – 1

Final score: NEOM 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% NEOM, 26% draw, 29% Al-Ettifaq — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NEOM at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEOM0%Draw5%Al-Ettifaq95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alexandre Lacazette
32'
45'
🔁Radhi Al Oteibiout: Abdullah Al-Khateeb
54'
🔁Sultan Ali Huranout: Matija Gluscevic
60'
Abdoulaye Kanté
60'
🔁Khalid Al-Ghannamout: Yasir Al-Shammari
🔁Georgios Masourasout: Muhanad Al Saad
74'
78'
🔁Ondrej Dudaout: Abdalellah Hawsawi
78'
🔁Jordan Larssonout: Ziyad Abdullah Al-Ghamdi
81'
Matija Gluscevic
🔁Mohannad Abu Tahaout: Khalil Al-Absi
81'
🔁Valentín Vadaout: Abbas Al Hassan
81'
82'
⚽Abdullah Al-Khateebassist: Ziyad Abdullah Al-Ghamdi
🔁Abdulmalik Al-Oyayariout: Haroune Camara
89'
🔁Khalifah Al-Dawsariout: Mohammed Al-Burayk
89'

Match stats — NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq

58%Possession42%
12Shots4
3On target1
10Corners2
0.8xG0.17

Goals against chances

NEOM0 from 0.80 xGless than the chances were worth
Al-Ettifaq1 from 0.17 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NEOM 4-4-2
  • 1M. BułkaG
  • 4Khalifah Al DawsariD
  • 5M. SarrD
  • 44N. ZézéD
  • 27Islam HawsawiD
  • 7G. MasourasM
  • 15Abdulmalik Al OyayariM
  • 23V. VadaM
  • 19Mohannad Abu TahaM
  • 91A. LacazetteF
  • 10S. BenrahmaF
Substitutes
  • 33Abdulrahman DagririG
  • 55Muhammad Al DosariD
  • 2Mohammed Al BuraykD
  • 14Khalil Al AbsiF
  • 8Faisal Al GhamdiM
  • 6A. Al HassanM
  • 75Khalid Al RammahD
  • 77Muhannad Al SaadF
  • 70Haroune CamaraF
Coach: C. Galtier
Al-Ettifaq 4-4-2
  • 1M. RodákG
  • 61Radhi Al OtaibiD
  • 5Pedro HenriqueD
  • 4J. HendryD
  • 33Madallah Al OlayanD
  • 17J. LarssonM
  • 42A. KantéM
  • 11O. DudaM
  • 7Khalid Al GhannamM
  • 99Sultan Ali HuranF
  • 43B. CelinaF
Substitutes
  • 13Meshal Al AlaeliD
  • 29Z. Al GhamdiF
  • 92Turki Ba Al JawshG
  • 71M. GluščevićF
  • 77AbdulelahM
  • 87Meshal SibyaniD
  • 70Abdullah KhateebD
  • 58Yasir ShammariM
  • 26Riyadh SharahiliM
Coach: Arthur Papas

Form going into NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq

NEOM

Pro League

  • D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026

Al-Ettifaq

Pro League

  • D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5NEOM127141810+822
7Al-Ettifaq125431817+119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq

  • 21 May 2026NEOM 1–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 21 January 2026Al-Ettifaq 0–0 NEOMPro League

Leading scorers: NEOM and Al-Ettifaq

NEOM

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lacazette72

Al-Ettifaq

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Ettifaq won 1–0 at NEOM. The model had leaned towards a win for NEOM at 45% and given a win for Al-Ettifaq 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Abdullah Al-Khateeb 82' for Al-Ettifaq. On expected goals it finished 0.80–0.17.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NEOM a 15.9% chance to finish in the top four: 19.0% after a win, 13.3% after a draw, 11.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.5%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NEOM v Al-Ettifaq has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is NEOM's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. NEOM win45%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Al-Ettifaq win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.