Arezzo vs Benevento Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Arezzo 0-3 Benevento.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Arezzo, 28% draw, 41% Benevento — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Benevento at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arezzo vs Benevento
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 14A. NunzianteG
- 6A. RenziD
- 13M. GilliD
- 4M. CoppolaroD
- 37S. RighettiD
- 24L. ChiericoM
- 30A. ArenaM
- 16Mattia SalaM
- 17A. IoniţăM
- 21C. TavernelliM
- 9A. CerriF
- 32A. CagnanoD
- 71P. CianciF
- 8S. MawuliM
- 67Gianmarco FerrariD
- 78Gennaro IaccarinoM
- 11L. MancusoF
- 10E. PattarelloF
- 90A. SeculinG
- 2M. MenaD
- 26G. VannucchiG
- 77E. PierozziD
- 14S. ScognamilloD
- 15C. Dalle MuraD
- 20P. BeruattoD
- 8M. MaitaM
- 6A. SiatounisM
- 28C. KouanM
- 10L. CherubiniF
- 29D. OkerekeM
- 9F. SalveminiF
- 23P. SaioD
- 17L. SernicolaD
- 18P. SimonettiM
- 93M. TumminelloF
- 90S. VerdiM
- 5L. CaldirolaD
- 4A. PriscoM
- 16Mattia ManniniD
- 11D. LamestaF
Form going into Arezzo vs Benevento
Arezzo
Serie B
- W2-1away to Sampdoria18 October 2026
Benevento
Serie B
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
| 6 | Benevento | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Benevento
- 9 May 2026Benevento 1–0 ArezzoSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
Leading scorers: Arezzo and Benevento
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Benevento
GoalsAssists
- A. Siatounis40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benevento won 3–0 at Arezzo. The model had made a win for Benevento its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Antonis Siatounis 49' for Benevento, David Okereke 66' for Benevento, G. Mignani 87' for Benevento. On expected goals it finished 0.41–2.72.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arezzo a 31.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.1% after a win, 31.4% after a draw, 34.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.6%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.
For Benevento the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 11.5% going in: 13.3% after a win, 11.1% after a draw, 8.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.3%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.