7 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Benevento vs Avellino Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento
Referee: Maurizio Mariani
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Benevento 1-1 Avellino.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Benevento, 29% draw, 27% Avellino — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benevento at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benevento4%Draw93%Avellino3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Leonardo Sernicolaout: Raffaele Romano
38'
Francesco Salvemini
42'
59'
Martin Palumbo
⚽Antonis Siatounis
60'
65'
🔁Michele Besaggioout: Luca Palmiero
67'
⚽Walid Cheddira
74'
🔁Martin Palumboout: Dimitrios Sounas
🔁Francesco Salveminiout: Marco Tumminello
75'
🔁Mattia Maitaout: Antonio prisco
75'
Stefano Scognamillo
75'
81'
L. Di Maggio
🔁Luigi Cherubiniout: Davide Lamesta
84'
🔁David Okerekeout: Simone Verdi
84'
86'
🔁L. Di Maggioout: Emanuele Adamo
87'
🔁Raffaele Russoout: Tommaso Biasci
87'
🔁Walid Cheddiraout: Luca Pandolfi
Pietro Beruatto
90+3'

Match stats — Benevento vs Avellino

55%Possession45%
26Shots8
5On target5
9Corners3
1.82xG0.69

Goals against chances

Benevento1 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth
Avellino1 from 0.69 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Benevento 4-1-4-1
  • 26G. VannucchiG
  • 17L. SernicolaD
  • 14S. ScognamilloD
  • 23P. SaioD
  • 20P. BeruattoD
  • 8M. MaitaM
  • 10L. CherubiniM
  • 6A. SiatounisM
  • 28C. KouanM
  • 29D. OkerekeM
  • 9F. SalveminiF
Substitutes
  • 15C. Dalle MuraD
  • 22M. EspositoG
  • 11D. LamestaF
  • 16Mattia ManniniD
  • 32G. MignaniF
  • 25Raffaele RomanoD
  • 21E. SchimmentiM
  • 18P. SimonettiM
  • 93M. TumminelloF
Coach: Antonio Floro Flores
Avellino 3-5-2
  • 50T. MartinelliG
  • 4A. IzzoD
  • 23M. VenturiD
  • 56P. EnriciD
  • 2F. MissoriM
  • 8L. Di MaggioM
  • 20M. PalumboM
  • 39M. BesaggioM
  • 27B. MoruzziM
  • 9W. CheddiraF
  • 10R. RussoF
Substitutes
  • 14T. BiasciF
  • 30E. AdamoM
  • 29T. CancellottiD
  • 5A. Di BitontoD
  • 77S. Di PaoloF
  • 16G. FaticantiM
  • 99A. FavilliF
  • 1A. IannarilliG
  • 6L. PalmieroM
Coach: A. Nesta

Form going into Benevento vs Avellino

Benevento

Serie B

  • L0-2away to Cremonese31 October 2026
  • D1-1Catanzaro27 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Arezzo24 October 2026
  • D2-2Vicenza Virtus17 October 2026

Avellino

Serie B

  • W2-0Pisa1 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Virtus Entella27 October 2026
  • L0-1Padova24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Cesena18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Benevento failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Benevento scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Benevento conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Avellino had two goals or fewer.
  • Avellino failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Avellino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Benevento114431511+416
5Avellino114431611+516

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benevento vs Avellino

  • 30 March 2025Avellino 2–1 BeneventoSerie C - Girone C
  • 17 November 2024Benevento 2–2 AvellinoSerie C - Girone C
  • 15 April 2024Avellino 1–0 BeneventoSerie C - Girone C
  • 10 December 2023Benevento 0–1 AvellinoSerie C - Girone C
  • 1 May 2017Benevento 2–1 AvellinoSerie B
  • 10 December 2016Avellino 1–1 BeneventoSerie B

Leading scorers: Benevento and Avellino

Benevento

GoalsAssists

  • A. Siatounis40

Avellino

GoalsAssists

  • R. Russo52
  • M. Besaggio30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benevento and Avellino drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Benevento at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Antonis Siatounis 60' for Benevento, Walid Cheddira 67' for Avellino. On expected goals it finished 1.82–0.69.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Benevento a 6.1% chance to finish in the top two: 7.6% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.8%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.