Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al-Gharafa 0-5 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Al-Gharafa, 22% draw, 62% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 6.25, 4.55 and 1.61.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Qadisiyah FC at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31A. KoneG
- 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiD
- 27M. HolgateD
- 20Jang Hyun-SooD
- 18Ayoub Al OuiD
- 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragD
- 97A. Nasar MohamedM
- 22Abdirashid Saeed HassanM
- 29F. DíazM
- 99Jamal HamedM
- 9F. MagriF
- 8Y. BrahimiF
- 7F. ComanF
- 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaD
- 16Jamil FriarkhM
- 34M. GamalG
- 13F. SassiM
- 19Yousef Saaed AhmedF
- 1Khalifa AbabacarG
- 6Dame TraoréD
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 35A. Al SiyahiD
- 17G. ÁlvarezD
- 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
- 5J. WeiglM
- 2Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 10Musab Al JuwayrM
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 33J. QuiñonesF
- 9Abdullah Al SalemF
- 13Abdulah Abdulaziz Al JwayzanD
- 7Turki Al AmmarM
- 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
- 28Ahmed Al KassarG
- 15Mohammed Al QahtaniF
- 30M. SangareF
- 70S. SuleimanF
- 50Meshari SunyurG
- 86Elyas Abu Bakr ShaikhM
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Gharafa
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-2away to Al-Ahli Jeddah26 October 2026
- L1-2Esteghlal FC12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Hilal15 September 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
AFC Champions League Elite
- D1-1Al Sadd26 October 2026
- D1-1away to Pakhtakor12 October 2026
- W2-1Al-Wasl FC14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Gharafa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 |
| 5 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Gharafa
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Quiñones41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5–0 at Al-Gharafa. The model had made a win for Al-Qadisiyah FC its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat 17' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Julián Quiñones 26' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Yasir Al-Shahrani 43' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Julián Quiñones 45' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtani 81' for Al-Qadisiyah FC. On expected goals it finished 0.59–2.88.
How the call on Al-Gharafa v Al-Qadisiyah FC has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 15% / 20% / 65% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 16% / 22% / 62%: the biggest move is Al-Qadisiyah FC's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Al-Gharafa win16%▲ +1
- Draw22%▲ +2
- Al-Qadisiyah FC win62%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.