Tractor Sazi vs Neftchi Fergana AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Tractor Sazi 2-2 Neftchi Fergana.
Before kick-off the model made it 80% Tractor Sazi, 13% draw, 7% Neftchi Fergana — fair odds of 1.25, 7.69 and 14.29.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Tractor Sazi at 80%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tractor Sazi vs Neftchi Fergana
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81P. JafariG
- 18S. MoharramiD
- 33F. FarajiD
- 3S. KhalilzadehD
- 58M. DaneshgarD
- 22M. NaderiD
- 11A. AbdullayevM
- 5O. HamrobekovM
- 7T. HalilovićM
- 99A. HosseinzadehF
- 70S. MoghanlouF
- 27A. KhorramiF
- 88S. KarimazarF
- 20M. HashemnejadF
- 6M. HosseiniM
- 17M. KazemayniF
- 2M. ShiriD
- 19T. ŠtrkaljF
- 10H HabibinejadM
- 23Yasin ZareG
- 1B. ErgashevG
- 34F. SayfiyevD
- 3MichelD
- 4B. CigerD
- 6Ibrokhimkhalil YuldoshevD
- 15Nurmuhammad AbduganiyevM
- 77RatinhoM
- 11A. JumayevM
- 31Yan SasseM
- 22Alisher OdilovM
- 88M. ForssF
- 19A. ErimbetovM
- 30Rustambek FominM
- 10J. IskanderovM
- 7A. IsmailovM
- 8V. JovovićM
- 18S. PericaF
- 2I. PulatovD
- 27N. SarsenbaevF
- 71B. ToshmirzaevF
Form going into Tractor Sazi vs Neftchi Fergana
Tractor Sazi
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-2away to Al Ain26 October 2026
- D0-0Al Shamal12 October 2026
- L0-1away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai14 September 2026
Neftchi Fergana
AFC Champions League Elite
- L1-2Al-Ittihad26 October 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Nassr12 October 2026
- W1-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tractor Sazi | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 9 | Neftchi Fergana | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Tractor Sazi and Neftchi Fergana drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Tractor Sazi at 80% and given a draw 13%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 8 matches like this one. The goals: Stipe Perica 55' for Neftchi Fergana, Tomislav Štrkalj 82' for Tractor Sazi, Vladimir Jovović 90+4' for Neftchi Fergana, Masoud Kazemayni 90+9' for Tractor Sazi. Sent off: Farshad Faraji (Tractor Sazi) 61'. On expected goals it finished 0.92–2.43.
How the call on Tractor Sazi v Neftchi Fergana has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 69% / 20% / 11% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 80% / 13% / 7%: the biggest move is Tractor Sazi's chance of winning, up 11 points.
- Tractor Sazi win80%▲ +11
- Draw13%▼ −7
- Neftchi Fergana win7%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.