13 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

Alinma Stadium, Jeddah
Referee: Ilgiz Tantashev
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Al-Ittihad 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Al-Ittihad, 26% draw, 27% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Ittihad at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Ittihad0%Draw5%Shabab Al Ahli Dubai95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Sardar Azmounassist: Guilherme da Silva Goncalves
16'
🔁Guilherme da Silva Goncalvesout: Reza Ghandipour
16'
⚽Sardar Azmounassist: Reza Ghandipour
🔁Dion Lopyout: Mukhtar Ali
45'
59'
🔁Jahnoah Markeloout: Mateus Henrique Alves Silva
59'
🔁Kauan Santos Silvaout: Rikelme Hernandes Amorim Rocha
🔁Ahmed Al Julaydanout: Muath Faquihi
63'
🔁Faris Abdiout: Marwan Al-Sahafi
63'
⚽Richard Ríos Montoyaassist: Marwan Al-Sahafi
66'
🔁Georginio Wijnaldumout: Houssem Aouar
70'
71'
🔁Igor Gomesout: Jorge Fernandes
71'
🔁Breno Cascardo Lemosout: Elian Mateo Irala
Richard Ríos Montoya
88'
🔁Steven Bergwijnout: Saleh Al-Shehri
90+2'

Match stats — Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

68%Possession32%
23Shots8
7On target3
5Corners0
1.58xG1.35

Goals against chances

Al-Ittihad1 from 1.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Ittihad 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. RajkovićG
  • 32Ahmed Al JulaydanD
  • 2Danilo PereiraD
  • 4J. ŠimićD
  • 25F. AbdiD
  • 5R. RiosM
  • 30D. LopyM
  • 99G. IlenikhenaM
  • 23G. WijnaldumM
  • 34S. BergwijnM
  • 21Y. En-NesyriF
Substitutes
  • 50Mohammed Al AbsiG
  • 8Mukhtar AliM
  • 88Osama Al MermeshG
  • 6Saad Al MosaD
  • 22Marwan Al SahafiF
  • 29Farhah Al ShamraniM
  • 13Muhannad Al ShanqitiD
  • 11Saleh Al ShehriF
  • 10H. AouarM
Coach: Jens Wissing
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-1-4-2
  • 33Matheus DonelliG
  • 3Igor GomesD
  • 4W. FaesD
  • 13RenanD
  • 6S. EzatolahiM
  • 24J. MarkeloM
  • 80Breno CascardoM
  • 88N. MaksimovićM
  • 31Kauan SantosM
  • 20S. AzmounF
  • 77Guilherme BalaF
Substitutes
  • 16RikelmeD
  • 19MateusãoF
  • 79João MarceloF
  • 5E. IralaM
  • 9R. GhandipourF
  • 44Jorge FernandesD
  • 21Sultan AdilF
  • 1Rakaan WaleedG
  • 26Eid Khamis Al-NuaimiM
Coach: André Jardine

Form going into Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Al-Ittihad

AFC Champions League Elite

  • D1-1away to Al Shamal14 September 2026

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

AFC Champions League Elite

  • W1-0Tractor Sazi14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Al-Ittihad411258-34
4Shabab Al Ahli Dubai430153+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

  • 30 September 2025Al-Ittihad 0–1 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiAFC Champions League Elite

Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Al-Ittihad

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

GoalsAssists

  • S. Azmoun22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 2–1 at Al-Ittihad. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Ittihad at 47% and given a win for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sardar Azmoun 7' for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, Sardar Azmoun 16' for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, Richard Ríos Montoya 66' for Al-Ittihad. On expected goals it finished 1.58–1.35.

How the call on Al-Ittihad v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai has moved

First published on 29 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Al-Ittihad's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Al-Ittihad win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.