SHANGHAI SIPG vs Daejeon Citizen AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% SHANGHAI SIPG, 25% draw, 37% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
SHANGHAI SIPG at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SHANGHAI SIPG vs Daejeon Citizen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Yan JunlingG
- 5Zhang LinpengD
- 44Miguel CamposD
- 13Wei ZhenD
- 22Xi Yang AlexD
- 21Óscar MelendoM
- 16Jaume GrauM
- 10Mateus VitalM
- 19Wang Zhen'aoD
- 7Wu LeiF
- 17P. AmpemF
- 47Jiwen KuaiM
- 45LeonardoF
- 8K. AziangbeM
- 40Yusup UmidjanD
- 33Liu ZhurunF
- 6Zhang YuanM
- 32Li ShuaiD
- 28Yue XinD
- 23Fu HuanD
- 25Lee Jun-SeoG
- 6Kang Yun-SungD
- 45Ha Chang-RaeD
- 98A. KrivotsyukD
- 2Park Kyu-HyunD
- 44Lee Soon-MinM
- 30Kim Bong-SooM
- 27Jeong Jae-HeeF
- 77João VictorF
- 19Seo Jin-SuF
- 9Diogo de OliveiraF
- 1Lee Chang-GeunG
- 3Kim Min-DukD
- 4Jo Seong-KwonD
- 7M. IshidaF
- 10Joo Min-KyuF
- 11Um Won-SangF
- 13Kim Jin-YaD
- 14Kim Jun-BumM
- 17G. LudwigsonF
Form going into SHANGHAI SIPG vs Daejeon Citizen
SHANGHAI SIPG
AFC Champions League Elite
- W6-4away to Ratchaburi15 September 2026
Daejeon Citizen
AFC Champions League Elite
- W1-0Kyoto Sanga15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 | Daejeon Citizen | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: SHANGHAI SIPG and Daejeon Citizen
SHANGHAI SIPG
GoalsAssists
- P. Ampem61
- Leonardo21
Daejeon Citizen
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SHANGHAI SIPG and Daejeon Citizen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for SHANGHAI SIPG at 38% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Prince Ampem 49' for SHANGHAI SIPG, Diogo Oliveira 54' for Daejeon Citizen. On expected goals it finished 0.44–0.99.
How the call on SHANGHAI SIPG v Daejeon Citizen has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 25% / 37%: the biggest move is the draw, down 3 points.
- SHANGHAI SIPG win38%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Daejeon Citizen win37%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.