Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Buriram United 0-1 Beijing Guoan.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Buriram United, 27% draw, 34% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Buriram United at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13N. EtheridgeG
- 17Lucas AhijadoD
- 5NathanD
- 6C. GoodD
- 31CajuF
- 20Toni MoyaM
- 27P. SookjitthammakulM
- 9S. ChaidedF
- 8PaulinhoM
- 10Sebas MoyanoF
- 7BissoliF
- 18V. SavićevićM
- 99A. TudorieF
- 55T. BunmathanD
- 40Eduardo ManchaD
- 34C. BootpromG
- 33T. ChotmuangpakM
- 30S. SchimmerF
- 19K. SchindlerF
- 2S. HaiprakhonD
- 34Hou SenG
- 21Yue Tze NamD
- 27Wang GangD
- 5Guilherme RamosD
- 26Bai YangD
- 28J. DudziakD
- 8A. KonteM
- 23DawhanM
- 10Zhang XizheM
- 20B. NkololoF
- 77C. AkoloF
- 4Li LeiD
- 6Chi ZhongguoM
- 7SerginhoM
- 11Lin LiangmingF
- 17Yang LiyuF
- 22Han JiaqiG
- 24Abduhamit AbdugheniD
- 29Fábio AbreuF
- 30Fan ShuangjieD
Form going into Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
Buriram United
AFC Champions League Elite
- D1-1away to Johor Darul Takzim FC15 September 2026
Beijing Guoan
AFC Champions League Elite
- W3-1Pohang Steelers15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Buriram United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Beijing Guoan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
- 24 April 2019Beijing Guoan 2–0 Buriram UnitedAFC Champions League
- 9 April 2019Buriram United 1–3 Beijing GuoanAFC Champions League
The result against the call
Beijing Guoan won 1–0 at Buriram United. The model had leaned towards a win for Buriram United at 39% and given a win for Beijing Guoan 34%. The goal: Fabio Abreu 79' for Beijing Guoan. On expected goals it finished 1.07–0.70.
How the call on Buriram United v Beijing Guoan has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Beijing Guoan's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Buriram United win39%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Beijing Guoan win34%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.