19 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg Premier League prediction & result

Arena Khimki, Khimki
Referee: Inal Tanashev
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Rodina Moskva 2-2 FC Orenburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Rodina Moskva, 27% draw, 44% FC Orenburg — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Orenburg at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rodina Moskva0%Draw3%FC Orenburg97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
⚽Soltmurad Bakaevassist: Yordy Reyna
14'
17'
Evgeniy Bolotov
25'
⚽Jordhy Thompson (pen)
26'
Jordhy Thompson
Soltmurad Bakaev
26'
Artem Maksimenko
50'
52'
Emil Tsenov
🔁Soltmurad Bakaevout: Artur Gharibyan
60'
🔁Artem Maksimenkoout: Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov
60'
65'
Damian Puebla
Rodrigo Becão
67'
68'
Aleksey Tataev
69'
🔁Damian Pueblaout: Renat Golybin
69'
🔁Evgeniy Bolotovout: Andrey Kasadzhikov
70'
🔁Dmitriy Rybchinskiyout: Egor Nazarenko
Sergey Volkov
71'
73'
⚽Jordhy Thompson (pen)
Igor Silva
75'
🔁Andrey Egorychevout: Ivan Timoshenko
75'
Yordy Reyna
77'
80'
Andrey Kasadzhikov
🔁Leon Musaevout: Kirill Ushatov
84'
89'
🔁Jordhy Thompsonout: Anton Lukashov
89'
Egor Nazarenko
⚽Ivan Timoshenko
90'
90+4'
🔁Gedeon Guzinaout: Danila Vedernikov

Match stats — Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg

56%Possession44%
15Shots17
6On target7
2Corners5
1.9xG2.31

Goals against chances

Rodina Moskva2 from 1.90 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Orenburg2 from 2.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rodina Moskva 4-2-3-1
  • 13S. VolkovG
  • 2Igor SilvaD
  • 50Rodrigo BecãoD
  • 75M. NadéD
  • 20D. MachadoD
  • 5A. EgorychevM
  • 38L. MusaevM
  • 9A. MaksimenkoM
  • 10Y. ReynaM
  • 17S. BakaevM
  • 7G. OnugkhaF
Substitutes
  • 1S. AydarovG
  • 18M. AbdusalamovF
  • 80S. BessmertnyD
  • 95K. CissokoF
  • 6R. FishchenkoM
  • 77A. GharibyanF
  • 3L. GoglichidzeD
  • 72A. GordyushenkoM
  • 26A. MeshchaninovD
Coach: Jonatan Alba
FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. OvsyannikovG
  • 24M. SivisD
  • 6J. PalaciosD
  • 5A. TataevD
  • 26E. TsenovD
  • 78R. KulM
  • 57E. BolotovM
  • 10J. ThompsonM
  • 8D. PueblaM
  • 20D. RybchinskiyM
  • 30G. GuzinaF
Substitutes
  • 3D. VedernikovD
  • 80M. PykhcheevM
  • 11E. NazarenkoM
  • 63O. MinatulaevM
  • 22A. LukashovD
  • 4D. KhotulevD
  • 38A. KasimovD
  • 77A. KasadzhikovF
  • 7J. GonzálezF
Coach: I. Akhmetzyanov

Form going into Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg

Rodina Moskva

Premier League

  • L0-3away to CSKA Moscow11 October 2026

FC Orenburg

Premier League

  • W4-0Dinamo Makhachkala10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Rodina Moskva143381529-1412
10FC Orenburg143831414017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg

  • 18 August 2026Rodina Moskva 1–4 FC OrenburgCup

Leading scorers: Rodina Moskva and FC Orenburg

Rodina Moskva

GoalsAssists

  • A. Maksimenko31

FC Orenburg

GoalsAssists

  • J. Thompson42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rodina Moskva and FC Orenburg drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Orenburg at 44% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Soltmurad Bakaev 14' for Rodina Moskva, Jordhy Thompson (penalty) 25' for FC Orenburg, Jordhy Thompson (penalty) 73' for FC Orenburg, Ivan Timoshenko 90' for Rodina Moskva. On expected goals it finished 1.90–2.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rodina Moskva a 91.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 86.9% after a win, 92.1% after a draw, 94.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 92.1%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

For FC Orenburg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 15.9% going in: 11.6% after a win, 16.3% after a draw, 20.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 16.3%.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rodina Moskva v FC Orenburg has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 29% / 27% / 44%: the biggest move is FC Orenburg's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Rodina Moskva win29%▼ −6
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. FC Orenburg win44%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.