24 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon Pro League prediction & result

Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Riyadh
Referee: Shukri Alhunfush, Saudi Arabia
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Al Riyadh 2-1 Al Taawon.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Al Riyadh, 29% draw, 36% Al Taawon — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Taawon at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Riyadh96%Draw4%Al Taawon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayji
🔁Hussain Al Shurafaout: Hassan Hashim Al-Ali
17'
⚽Teddy Okouassist: Bernard Mensah
39'
45+3'
•Abderrazak Hamdallah
45'
🔁Mohammed Bassam Al Hurayjiout: Younes El Bahraoui
🔁Awad Dahalout: Fahad Mohammed Al-Jayzani
68'
72'
🔁Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibiout: Rakan Al Tulayhi
72'
🔁Nasser Al-Haleelout: Mohammed Al Saedi
72'
🔁Parfait Guiagonout: Nedim Bajrami
⚽Bernard Mensah
76'
78'
⚽Nedim Bajrami
🔁Teddy Okouout: Osama Al-Boardi
86'
90'
🔁Faris Al-Ghamdiout: Mohammed Al-Aqel
90+3'
Ibrahim Mohannashi

Match stats — Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon

38%Possession62%
13Shots10
6On target4
2Corners10
1.57xG0.47

Goals against chances

Al Riyadh2 from 1.57 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al Taawon1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Riyadh 4-3-3
  • 82M. BorjanG
  • 32Awad DahalD
  • 5Hossam MajrashiD
  • 26R. AbascalD
  • 23Hussain QasimD
  • 43B. MensahM
  • 6K. KeitaM
  • 22V. LekhalM
  • 10T. OkouF
  • 7TrézéguetF
  • 19A. M. Al HarthiF
Substitutes
  • 11H. Al AliF
  • 79F. Al JayzaniM
  • 76Ahmed Al AnaziD
  • 3Y. M. Al MusaD
  • 17Hussain Al-RaqwaniF
  • 20Battal Al HarthiF
  • 12Sulaiman HazaziD
  • 28J. PetekG
  • 13Osama Al BowardiD
Coach: Maurício Dulac
Al Taawon 5-4-1
  • 1MailsonG
  • 6Mohammed Bassam Al HurayjiD
  • 4Nasser Al HaleelD
  • 5Z. BelaïdD
  • 40Ibrahim MahnashiD
  • 88M. PetkovD
  • 7Mohammed Al KuwaykibiM
  • 16Faris Al GhamdiM
  • 18A. El MahdiouiM
  • 8P. GuiagonM
  • 9A. Hamed AllahF
Substitutes
  • 30Abdullah Al JadaniG
  • 93Awn Al SaluliD
  • 87Ali Ahmed Ali Halawi SharahiliD
  • 23Rakan Al TulayhiM
  • 45Mohammed Al SaediM
  • 10N. BajramiM
  • 47Y. El BahraouiF
  • 17Mohammed Al AqelF
  • 63Adel Sami FallatahM
Coach: V. Rašović

Form going into Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon

Al Riyadh

Pro League

  • L0-1away to Al Diriyah20 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Fayha11 October 2026
  • W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026

Al Taawon

Pro League

  • L0-1Al-Qadisiyah FC20 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al Diriyah17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Al Shabab11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Al Riyadh113351125-1412
17Al Taawon12057620-145

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon

  • 15 May 2026Al Taawon 1–1 Al RiyadhPro League
  • 18 January 2026Al Riyadh 1–3 Al TaawonPro League
  • 20 May 2025Al Taawon 3–2 Al RiyadhPro League
  • 21 January 2025Al Riyadh 1–0 Al TaawonPro League
  • 9 May 2024Al Riyadh 0–0 Al TaawonPro League
  • 24 November 2023Al Taawon 1–2 Al RiyadhPro League

The result against the call

Al Riyadh beat Al Taawon 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Taawon at 36% and given a win for Al Riyadh 35%. The goals: Teddy Okou 39' for Al Riyadh, Bernard Mensah 76' for Al Riyadh, Nedim Bajrami 78' for Al Taawon. On expected goals it finished 1.57–0.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Riyadh a 39.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 31.1% after a win, 39.6% after a draw, 47.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.1%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

For Al Taawon the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 43.3% going in: 34.6% after a win, 46.5% after a draw, 50.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.9%, 7.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Riyadh v Al Taawon has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Al Taawon's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Al Riyadh win35%▲ +1
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Al Taawon win36%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.