24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

NEOM vs Abha Pro League prediction & result

King Khalid Sports City, Tabuk
Referee: Khalid Al-Ahmari, Saudi Arabia
Full time2 – 0

Final score: NEOM 2-0 Abha.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% NEOM, 28% draw, 22% Abha — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NEOM at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEOM99%Draw1%Abha0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Saïd Benrahmaassist: Alexandre Lacazette
15'
•Nathan Zeze
20'
49'
Khaled Al Shamrani
⚽Alexandre Lacazetteassist: Saïd Benrahma
50'
58'
🔁Michy Batshuayiout: Alimani Gory
58'
🔁Khaled Al Shamraniout: Safwan Al Johani
71'
🔁Firas Al-Ghamdiout: Nabil Fekir
71'
🔁Mohammed Al-Dosariout: Majed Dawran
🔁Abdulmalik Al-Oyayariout: Abbas Al Hassan
71'
🔁Georgios Masourasout: Mohannad Abu Taha
71'
79'
Safwan Al Johani
🔁Khalil Al-Absiout: Haroune Camara
83'
🔁Saïd Benrahmaout: Muhanad Al Saad
83'
84'
🔁Abdullah Al Fahadout: Kheshim Al Qahtani

Match stats — NEOM vs Abha

58%Possession42%
13Shots6
5On target2
5Corners4
1.39xG0.74

Goals against chances

NEOM2 from 1.39 xGmore than the chances were worth
Abha0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NEOM 4-4-2
  • 81Luís MaximianoG
  • 4Khalifah Al DawsariD
  • 5M. SarrD
  • 44N. ZézéD
  • 27Islam HawsawiD
  • 14Khalil Al AbsiM
  • 23V. VadaM
  • 15Abdulmalik Al OyayariM
  • 10S. BenrahmaM
  • 7G. MasourasF
  • 91A. LacazetteF
Substitutes
  • 33Abdulrahman DagririG
  • 55Muhammad Al DosariD
  • 2Mohammed Al BuraykD
  • 19Mohannad Abu TahaD
  • 8Faisal Al GhamdiM
  • 6A. Al HassanM
  • 9Abdulaziz Al OthmanF
  • 77Muhannad Al SaadF
  • 70Haroune CamaraF
Coach: C. Galtier
Abha 5-4-1
  • 16D. LéonG
  • 23Mohammed Al DossaryD
  • 3J. GaariD
  • 19Abdullah Al FahadD
  • 37Abdulbasit Al-HindiD
  • 12K. Al ShamraniD
  • 17Abdulkarim DarisiM
  • 8Nasser Al DaajaniM
  • 7Firas Al-GhamdiM
  • 14G. NkoudouM
  • 44M. BatshuayiF
Substitutes
  • 28Bader Al MutairiM
  • 20K. Al QahtaniF
  • 6Faisal Al SubianiM
  • 9Kamil BoumedmedF
  • 29Majed DawranM
  • 10N. FekirF
  • 11A. GoryF
  • 21A. Al BouqG
  • 80Safwan SaudD
Coach: D. Burić

Form going into NEOM vs Abha

NEOM

Pro League

  • L0-1away to Al-Nassr20 October 2026
  • L0-1Al-Ettifaq17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Hazm10 October 2026

Abha

Pro League

  • L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5NEOM127141810+822
18Abha11038719-123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NEOM vs Abha

  • 21 January 2025NEOM 2–2 AbhaDivision 1
  • 21 August 2024Abha 0–2 NEOMDivision 1

Leading scorers: NEOM and Abha

NEOM

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lacazette72

Abha

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NEOM beat Abha 2–0. The model had made a win for NEOM its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Saïd Benrahma 15' for NEOM, Alexandre Lacazette 50' for NEOM. On expected goals it finished 1.39–0.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Abha a 42.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 32.0% after a win, 41.9% after a draw, 46.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.8%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NEOM v Abha has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 55% / 25% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is NEOM's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. NEOM win50%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%▲ +3
  3. Abha win22%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.