7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Cesena vs Catanzaro Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
Referee: Maco Di Loreto
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Cesena 1-0 Catanzaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Cesena, 26% draw, 34% Catanzaro — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cesena at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cesena96%Draw4%Catanzaro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁X. Druiventakout: Antonio Fiori
45'
61'
🔁Nicola Mostiout: Samuel Giovane
62'
🔁Pietro Lemmelloout: Franck Tchaouna
🔁Luca D'Andreaout: Maat Daniel Caprini
62'
🔁Emil Bohinenout: Matteo Guidi
65'
Riccardo Pagano
74'
80'
🔁N'Dri Koffiout: Nicolo Buso
🔁Dimitri Bisoliout: Alessandro Debenedetti
81'
⚽Jacopo Gelliassist: Gianluca Frabotta
83'
86'
🔁Gabriele Alesiout: Simone Pafundi

Match stats — Cesena vs Catanzaro

47%Possession53%
12Shots11
4On target4
3Corners9
1.15xG0.66

Goals against chances

Cesena1 from 1.15 xGabout what the chances were worth
Catanzaro0 from 0.66 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cesena 4-3-3
  • 1A. SianoG
  • 15A. CiofiD
  • 4J. GelliD
  • 24M. MangravitiD
  • 7G. FrabottaD
  • 25D. BisoliM
  • 32E. BohinenM
  • 10R. PaganoM
  • 14X. DruiventakF
  • 9C. ShpendiF
  • 16L. D'AndreaF
Substitutes
  • 11M. CapriniF
  • 27M. Dalla VecchiaM
  • 3A. DavidD
  • 91A. DebenedettiF
  • 80A. FioriF
  • 39N. FontanaG
  • 8M. FrancesconiM
  • 18M. GuidiM
  • 6M. IlićD
Coach: Alessandro Diamanti
Catanzaro 3-5-2
  • 22M. PigliacelliG
  • 62R. FrosininiD
  • 4Matias AntoniniD
  • 3M. ImperialeD
  • 27A. CandelaM
  • 28F. TchaounaM
  • 98N. MostiM
  • 30G. AlesiM
  • 93M. DorvalM
  • 9P. IemmelloF
  • 19N. KoffiF
Substitutes
  • 26B. VerrengiaD
  • 25F. TchaounaM
  • 77M. D'AlessandroF
  • 7N. BusoF
  • 91G. ArditiF
  • 18A. GarnicaF
  • 14S. GiovaneM
  • 1C. MariettaG
  • 20S. PafundiM
Coach: M. Mignani

Form going into Cesena vs Catanzaro

Cesena

Serie B

  • D1-1away to Sudtirol31 October 2026
  • W2-1Empoli27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Modena24 October 2026
  • D1-1Avellino18 October 2026

Catanzaro

Serie B

  • D1-1Padova31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Benevento27 October 2026
  • L1-6Ascoli24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Hellas Verona16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cesena conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Cesena failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Cesena scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Catanzaro did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Catanzaro scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Catanzaro conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Cesena113621214-215
20Catanzaro111371123-126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cesena vs Catanzaro

  • 21 March 2026Cesena 3–1 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 27 December 2025Catanzaro 2–0 CesenaSerie B
  • 17 May 2025Catanzaro 1–0 CesenaSerie B
  • 1 February 2025Catanzaro 4–2 CesenaSerie B
  • 28 August 2024Cesena 2–0 CatanzaroSerie B

Leading scorers: Cesena and Catanzaro

Cesena

GoalsAssists

  • C. Shpendi81

Catanzaro

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cesena beat Catanzaro 1–0. The model had made a win for Cesena its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Jacopo Gelli 83' for Cesena. On expected goals it finished 1.15–0.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cesena a 23.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 17.9% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.9%, 6 points lower than before the match.

For Catanzaro the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.3% going in: 21.1% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 31.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.5%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cesena v Catanzaro has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Cesena's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Cesena win40%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Catanzaro win34%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.