24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Avellino vs Padova Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Referee: Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi, Italy
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Avellino 0-1 Padova.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Avellino, 28% draw, 24% Padova — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Avellino at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Avellino0%Draw5%Padova95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Emanuele Zuelliassist: Gabriele Artistico
41'
Giovanni·Giunti
41'
Pietro Fusi
🔁Luca Palmieroout: L. Di Maggio
45'
🔁Walid Cheddiraout: Andrea Favilli
59'
🔁Alessandro Di Bitontoout: Armando Izzo
59'
66'
🔁Pietro Fusiout: Kevin Varas
🔁Martin Palumboout: Tommaso Biasci
74'
77'
🔁Giovanni·Giuntiout: Marco Pompetti
77'
🔁Gabriele Artisticoout: Mattia Bortolussi
🔁Brando Moruzziout: S. Di Paolo
82'
90+2'
🔁Luca Moroout: Alexander Seghetti
90+2'
🔁Emanuele Zuelliout: Nicolas Galazzi

Match stats — Avellino vs Padova

69%Possession31%
28Shots8
7On target1
11Corners2
2.18xG0.86

Goals against chances

Avellino0 from 2.18 xGless than the chances were worth
Padova1 from 0.86 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Avellino 3-5-2
  • 50T. MartinelliG
  • 5A. Di BitontoD
  • 23M. VenturiD
  • 56P. EnriciD
  • 2F. MissoriM
  • 20M. PalumboM
  • 6L. PalmieroM
  • 39M. BesaggioM
  • 27B. MoruzziM
  • 9W. CheddiraF
  • 10R. RussoF
Substitutes
  • 29T. CancellottiD
  • 14T. BiasciF
  • 8L. Di MaggioM
  • 77S. Di PaoloF
  • 16G. FaticantiM
  • 99A. FavilliF
  • 1A. IannarilliG
  • 4A. IzzoD
  • 7L. PandolfiF
Coach: A. Nesta
Padova 3-5-2
  • 22A. SorrentinoG
  • 32F. SgarbiD
  • 5M. LovatoD
  • 27Alessandro DellavalleD
  • 24L. CarissoniM
  • 21E. ZuelliM
  • 6G. GiuntiM
  • 8P. FusiM
  • 17A. CapelliM
  • 9L. MoroF
  • 90G. ArtisticoF
Substitutes
  • 72C. FaedoD
  • 20M. BortolussiF
  • 34M. CocchiD
  • 23F. Di MarianoM
  • 25N. GalazziM
  • 1L. MouquetG
  • 58C. PastinaD
  • 12S. ScagliaG
  • 11A. SeghettiF
Coach: N. Calabro

Form going into Avellino vs Padova

Avellino

Serie B

  • D1-1away to Cesena18 October 2026

Padova

Serie B

  • L1-2Virtus Entella17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Avellino114431611+516
10Padova114341213-115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Avellino vs Padova

  • 7 March 2026Avellino 1–0 PadovaSerie B
  • 30 September 2025Padova 2–2 AvellinoSerie B
  • 3 May 2025Avellino 0–1 PadovaSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
  • 9 June 2021Avellino 0–1 PadovaSerie C - Girone A
  • 6 June 2021Padova 1–1 AvellinoSerie C - Girone A

Leading scorers: Avellino and Padova

Avellino

GoalsAssists

  • R. Russo52
  • M. Besaggio30

Padova

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Padova won 1–0 at Avellino. The model had leaned towards a win for Avellino at 48% and given a win for Padova 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Emanuele Zuelli 20' for Padova. On expected goals it finished 2.18–0.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Avellino a 7.5% chance to finish in the top two: 8.9% after a win, 6.2% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For Padova the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.4% going in: 22.0% after a win, 27.6% after a draw, 32.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.0%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Avellino v Padova has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Avellino's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Avellino win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Padova win24%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.