25 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Albacete vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete
Referee: Daniel Palencia Caballero
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Albacete 2-0 Eldense.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Albacete, 28% draw, 41% Eldense — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Eldense at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Albacete99%Draw1%Eldense0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Víctor San Bartolomé
20'
José Corpas
21'
24'
Justin Smith
33'
Carlos Guirao Mora
33'
Fidel
⚽Higinio Marínassist: Victor Valverde da Silva
45'
45'
🔁Jorge Rastrojoout: Mariano Emilio Carmona Cerezo
45'
🔁Justin Smithout: Jorge Martin Camunas
Jesús Vallejo
51'
54'
Javi Martínez
62'
🔁Fidelout: Manuel Nieto
62'
🔁Javi Martínezout: Marcos Bustillo Aquesolo
🔁Víctor San Bartoloméout: Agustin Medina Delgado
63'
🔁Higinio Marínout: Mario Soberon Gutierrez
63'
🔁Victor Valverde da Silvaout: Dani Bernabéu
69'
Antonio Pacheco Ruiz
71'
Lorenzo Aguado Herrera
73'
81'
🔁Carlos Guirao Moraout: Dinis Rodrigues
🔁Lorenzo Aguado Herreraout: Javi Villar
82'
🔁Antonio Pacheco Ruizout: Roberto Gonzalez Bayon
82'

Match stats — Albacete vs Eldense

37%Possession63%
19Shots10
4On target1
10Corners4
1.06xG0.94

Goals against chances

Albacete2 from 1.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
Eldense0 from 0.94 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Albacete 4-1-4-1
  • 13Diego MariñoG
  • 2Lorenzo AguadoD
  • 24VallejoD
  • 22Lluís LópezD
  • 21Carlos NevaD
  • 6Antonio PachecoM
  • 17José CorpasM
  • 18Sergio OrtuM
  • 14San BartoloméM
  • 11Víctor ValverdeM
  • 12Higinio MarínF
Substitutes
  • 1Carlos MarínG
  • 4Agus MedinaM
  • 19Alex RubioF
  • 9Mario SoberónF
  • 28A. VelillaD
  • 8Javi VillarM
  • 10RóberF
  • 40Jota DomingoD
  • 27D. BernabeuD
Coach: Joseba Etxeberria
Eldense 4-4-2
  • 1Ramón VilaG
  • 17Jesús ClementeD
  • 5Alex SerradellD
  • 4F. SmandD
  • 3Juan LariosD
  • 10FidelM
  • 14J. SmithM
  • 15Carlos GuiraoM
  • 33Aingeru OlabarrietaM
  • 7Jorge RastrojoF
  • 24Javi MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 8Marcos BustilloM
  • 9M. CarmonaF
  • 19A. IbarrondoF
  • 23Jordi MartínD
  • 11Manu NietoF
  • 34J. OlaizolaD
  • 13JuanpaG
  • 29Dinis RodriguesF
  • 2Iker RecioD
Coach: Javi Calleja

Form going into Albacete vs Eldense

Albacete

Segunda División

  • L1-2away to Sporting Gijon17 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026

Eldense

Segunda División

  • W3-2away to Valladolid18 October 2026
  • W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Albacete133191324-1110
16Eldense134271319-614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Albacete vs Eldense

  • 7 August 2026Albacete 1–0 EldenseFriendlies Clubs
  • 23 February 2025Albacete 0–1 EldenseSegunda División
  • 16 November 2024Eldense 2–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 21 April 2024Eldense 0–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 19 December 2023Albacete 1–1 EldenseSegunda División
  • 29 July 2023Albacete 2–3 EldenseFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Albacete beat Eldense 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Eldense at 41% and given a win for Albacete 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Víctor San Bartolomé 20' for Albacete, Higinio Marín 45' for Albacete. On expected goals it finished 1.06–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Albacete a 79.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 74.4% after a win, 81.2% after a draw, 82.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.4%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Albacete v Eldense has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is Eldense's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Albacete win31%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Eldense win41%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.