25 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC Segunda División prediction & result

JP Financial Estadio, Cadiz
Referee: Andres Fuentes Molina
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Cadiz 3-1 AD Ceuta FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Cadiz, 27% draw, 27% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cadiz at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cadiz97%Draw3%AD Ceuta FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+1'
⚽Yann Bodiger (pen)
Dilan Zárate
45+3'
🔁Vladyslav Kopotunout: Álvaro García Pascual
45'
Álvaro García Pascual
49'
⚽Ibon Ignacio Sánchez Océn
51'
Beñat de Jesús Domingo
64'
65'
🔁Edgar Sevikyanout: Carlos Hernández
70'
Albert Caparros
⚽Antonio Cordero (pen)
71'
75'
🔁Albert Caparrosout: Kialy Abdoul Kone
75'
🔁Cedric Teguiaout: Jordi Escobar
75'
🔁Yann Bodigerout: Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
Sergio Arribas Prieto
81'
🔁Beñat de Jesús Domingoout: Cristian Gutiérrez
83'
🔁Antonio Corderoout: Juan Díaz Peregrina
83'
🔁Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundiout: Javier Ontiveros
83'
88'
🔁José Antonio Abad Martínezout: Umaru Konare
🔁Ibon Ignacio Sánchez Océnout: Borja Vazquez
89'
90+1'
José Juan Romero Gil
Borja Vazquez
90+2'
90+3'
Umaru Konare
⚽Borja Vazquezassist: Álvaro García Pascual
90+5'

Match stats — Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC

32%Possession68%
11Shots24
5On target5
3Corners10
1.55xG2.43

Goals against chances

Cadiz3 from 1.55 xGmore than the chances were worth
AD Ceuta FC1 from 2.43 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cadiz 4-4-2
  • 13Jokin EzkietaG
  • 2Beñat de JesúsD
  • 14B. KovačevićD
  • 6Manu FernándezD
  • 3Sergio ArribasD
  • 24Ibon SánchezM
  • 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
  • 23Damián RodríguezM
  • 16Antonio CorderoM
  • 19Urko IzetaF
  • 21V. KopotunF
Substitutes
  • 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
  • 5M. DouéM
  • 9Álvaro GarcíaF
  • 1David GilG
  • 22Cristian GutiérrezD
  • 17A. MoueffekM
  • 10Javi OntiverosM
  • 18Jandro OrellanaM
  • 15K. ToibibouD
Coach: Borja Jiménez
AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
  • 1Pedro LópezG
  • 2Toni AbadD
  • 4Albert CaparrósD
  • 5Adrián LapeñaD
  • 16RedruD
  • 20Álex MeléndezM
  • 14Y. BodigerM
  • 10Marino IllescasM
  • 19E. SevikyanF
  • 8KukiF
  • 11Cedric TeguiaF
Substitutes
  • 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezM
  • 9Jordi EscobarF
  • 6Carlos HernándezD
  • 27U. KonareF
  • 22K. KonéF
  • 3José MatosD
  • 17Mawuli MensahM
  • 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
  • 18Alex PetxarromanD
Coach: José Juan Romero

Form going into Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC

Cadiz

Segunda División

  • L0-2away to Granada CF18 October 2026
  • L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026

AD Ceuta FC

Segunda División

  • L1-2Oviedo18 October 2026
  • L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Cadiz132471618-210
22AD Ceuta FC1312101030-205

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC

  • 29 July 2026Cadiz 1–3 AD Ceuta FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 March 2026AD Ceuta FC 2–1 CadizSegunda División
  • 28 September 2025Cadiz 0–0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
  • 2 August 2025Cadiz 0–3 AD Ceuta FCFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC

Cadiz

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Cordero52

AD Ceuta FC

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Escobar41
  • Carlos Hernández40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cadiz beat AD Ceuta FC 3–1. The model had made a win for Cadiz its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Yann Bodiger (penalty) 45+1' for AD Ceuta FC, Ibon Ignacio Sánchez Océn 51' for Cadiz, Antonio Cordero (penalty) 71' for Cadiz, Borja Vazquez 90+5' for Cadiz. On expected goals it finished 1.55–2.43.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cadiz a 55.8% chance to finish in the bottom four: 50.2% after a win, 59.3% after a draw, 63.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.2%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.

For AD Ceuta FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 76.5% going in: 70.4% after a win, 77.1% after a draw, 80.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.5%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cadiz v AD Ceuta FC has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Cadiz's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Cadiz win46%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. AD Ceuta FC win27%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.