25 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Chornomorets vs Karpaty Premier League prediction & result

Chornomorets Stadium, Odessa
Referee: Dmitriy Panchishin
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Chornomorets 0-0 Karpaty.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Chornomorets, 28% draw, 46% Karpaty — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Karpaty at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chornomorets4%Draw93%Karpaty3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Jean Pedroso
Oleg Pushkaryov
8'
Moses Jarju
8'
11'
🔁Joseph Séryout: Tymur Stetskov
33'
Tymur Stetskov
45'
🔁Fellipe Vieiraout: Rostyslav Lyakh
45'
🔁Eriki Daniel Rodrigues Bentoout: Mohamed Aiman Moukhliss
🔁Vasyl Kurkoout: Artur Avagimyan
45'
48'
Mohamed Aiman Moukhliss
67'
🔁Denys Miroshnichenkoout: Ivan Calero
🔁giorgi robakidzeout: Dmytro Klyots
67'
71'
Vladyslav Baboglo
76'
🔁Nazariy Rusynout: Oleksandr Diedov
🔁Andriy Khomaout: Vitaliy Faraseyenko
82'
90+2'
Roman Mysak
90+3'
Roman Vantukh

Match stats — Chornomorets vs Karpaty

64%Possession36%
16Shots7
2On target2
3Corners3

Line-ups

Chornomorets 4-1-4-1
  • 12C. AniagbosoG
  • 27O. PushkarevD
  • 24M. JarjuD
  • 60M. MelnychenkoD
  • 74M. FarinaD
  • 5V. KurkoM
  • 7D. AlefirenkoM
  • 30Muhammed JobeM
  • 18G. RobakidzeM
  • 9A. KhomaM
  • 99C. MbaF
Substitutes
  • 10A. AvagimyanM
  • 17I. KogutM
  • 13V. FaraseenkoM
  • 22S. KorniychukD
  • 19M. KogutM
  • 21V. KlymenkoM
  • 4M. KratovD
  • 16N. BaydaG
  • 35M. KovalG
Coach: R. Grigorchuk
Karpaty 4-1-4-1
  • 80R. MysakG
  • 11D. MiroshnichenkoD
  • 4V. BabogloD
  • 47Jean PedrosoD
  • 17R. VantukhD
  • 18Eriki Daniel Rodrigues BentoM
  • 70Xeber AlkainM
  • 8A. ChachuaM
  • 7Fellipe VieiraM
  • 31N. RusynM
  • 9J. SéryF
Substitutes
  • 28O. DyedovF
  • 73R. LyakhD
  • 55T. StetskovD
  • 22Y. KokodynyakD
  • 14Iván CaleroD
  • 10MohaM
  • 21Bruno IglesiasM
  • 19Y. KarabinM
  • 1D. MarchenkoG
Coach: Fran Fernández

Form going into Chornomorets vs Karpaty

Chornomorets

Premier League

  • L1-2away to Zorya Luhansk17 October 2026
  • L1-2FC Kharkiv10 October 2026

Karpaty

Premier League

  • D2-2Epitsentr Dunayivtsi18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv11 October 2026
  • D1-1Veres Rivne20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Chornomorets11236813-59
5Karpaty11542228+1419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chornomorets vs Karpaty

  • 30 March 2025Karpaty 4–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 21 September 2024Chornomorets 0–1 KarpatyPremier League
  • 21 August 2024Karpaty 3–0 ChornomoretsCup
  • 21 May 2019Chornomorets 3–1 KarpatyPremier League
  • 23 April 2019Karpaty 0–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 28 October 2018Chornomorets 0–5 KarpatyPremier League

Leading scorers: Chornomorets and Karpaty

Chornomorets

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Karpaty

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Kostenko50
  • Xeber Alkain22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chornomorets and Karpaty drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Karpaty at 46% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Jean Pedroso (Karpaty) 5'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chornomorets a 47.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 37.0% after a win, 47.1% after a draw, 52.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 47.1%.

For Karpaty the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 36.4% going in: 41.7% after a win, 32.8% after a draw, 29.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.8%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.