31 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Albacete vs Sabadell Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete
Referee: A. Fuentes
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Albacete 2-1 Sabadell.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Albacete, 32% draw, 38% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.33, 3.13 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sabadell at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Óscar Sanz
⚽Óscar Sanz (OG)
10'
⚽Diego Fuoli (OG)
38'
José Corpas
42'
45+6'
🔁Quadri Liameedout: Pere Pons
45+10'
Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquez
45'
🔁Óscar Sanzout: Eneko Aguilar
48'
Ángel Baena
🔁Victor Valverde da Silvaout: Dani Bernabéu
54'
🔁Víctor San Bartoloméout: Javi Villar
54'
59'
🔁Ton Ripollout: Javi López-Pinto
🔁Lorenzo Aguado Herreraout: Agustin Medina Delgado
64'
🔁Higinio Marínout: Álex Rubio Roldán
65'
70'
🔁Arthur Bonaldoout: Alain Ribeiro
Álex Rubio Roldán
73'
76'
🔁Joel Priegoout: Nikolay Obolskiy
81'
⚽Eneko Aguilarassist: Ángel Baena

Match stats — Albacete vs Sabadell

41%Possession59%
5Shots25
2On target5
7Corners6
0.42xG1.67

Goals against chances

Albacete2 from 0.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sabadell1 from 1.67 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Albacete 3-5-2
  • 13Diego MariñoG
  • 24VallejoD
  • 22Lluís LópezD
  • 21Carlos NevaD
  • 2Lorenzo AguadoM
  • 14San BartoloméM
  • 6Antonio PachecoM
  • 18Sergio OrtuM
  • 11Víctor ValverdeM
  • 17José CorpasF
  • 12Higinio MarínF
Substitutes
  • 19Alex RubioF
  • 27D. BernabeuD
  • 32A. AlbarracínF
  • 40Jota DomingoD
  • 10RóberF
  • 1Carlos MarínG
  • 4Agus MedinaM
  • 44Antonio DavidM
  • 9Mario SoberónF
Coach: Joseba Etxeberria
Sabadell 4-4-2
  • 1Diego FuoliG
  • 7Ton RipollD
  • 5Arthur BonaldoD
  • 14Óscar SanzD
  • 27José Luis CatalàD
  • 10Ángel BaenaM
  • 20UrriM
  • 22Q. LiameedM
  • 23J. PriegoM
  • 19Y. RahmaniF
  • 12Gastón VallesF
Substitutes
  • 24Eneko AguilarM
  • 3Genar FornésD
  • 15Kaiser LázaroD
  • 11Javi LópezM
  • 18Y. OwusuM
  • 9N. ObolskiyF
  • 13J. OrtegaG
  • 8Pere PonsM
  • 21Alain RibeiroM
Coach: Ferran Costa

Form going into Albacete vs Sabadell

Albacete

Segunda División

  • W2-0Eldense25 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sporting Gijon17 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026

Sabadell

Segunda División

  • D1-1Tenerife25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Burgos18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Albacete133191324-1110
13Sabadell134631211+118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Albacete vs Sabadell

  • 3 April 2022Sabadell 1–0 AlbacetePrimera División RFEF - Group 2
  • 16 February 2022Albacete 1–1 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
  • 26 February 2021Sabadell 0–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 17 October 2020Albacete 3–0 SabadellSegunda División

The result against the call

Albacete beat Sabadell 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sabadell at 38% and given a win for Albacete 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Óscar Sanz (own goal) 10' for Albacete, Diego Fuoli (own goal) 38' for Albacete, Eneko Aguilar 81' for Sabadell. Sent off: José Corpas (Albacete) 42'. On expected goals it finished 0.42–1.67.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Albacete a 71.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 65.6% after a win, 72.3% after a draw, 75.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.6%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Albacete v Sabadell has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 26% / 30% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 32% / 38%: the biggest move is Sabadell's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Albacete win30%▲ +4
  2. Draw32%▲ +2
  3. Sabadell win38%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.