Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Celta de Vigo II 2-2 Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Celta de Vigo II, 24% draw, 33% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Celta de Vigo II at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Coke CarrilloG
- 3K. RibesD
- 4S. M. NdiayeD
- 18Joel LópezD
- 2P. GavianM
- 16Adrià CapdevilaM
- 29M. SobralM
- 11Ángel ArcosM
- 15A. KibetF
- 9A. MarinF
- 10O. MarcosF
- 25M. GonzalezG
- 19A. Davila OutereloF
- 13Caio BaroneG
- 22Stefan BajčetićM
- 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
- 23G. MillerD
- 14Jan OliverasD
- 26Jorge Pérez-Lafuente ReyF
- 34Pablo Rodríguez DominguezM
- 1Iker ÁlvarezG
- 30Daniel BudescaD
- 5Juan GutiérrezD
- 4Álex MartínD
- 3Dani TasendeD
- 28Eder GarcíaM
- 8Isma RuizM
- 14Adnane GhailanM
- 23Cristian CarracedoF
- 9PercanF
- 11Diego BriF
- 7T. ZidaneM
- 16Rubén AlvesD
- 24S. El JebariF
- 6D. CaceresM
- 21Carlos AlbarránD
- 20Nélson MonteD
- 27Egoitz MuñozD
- 18Enol RodríguezF
- 19Ibai SanzF
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División
- L1-5away to Girona24 October 2026
- D1-1Tenerife19 October 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026
Cordoba
Segunda División
- W2-0Eibar24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Leganes16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 13 |
| 10 | Cordoba | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba
- 29 January 2023Cordoba 0–2 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 11 September 2022Celta de Vigo II 1–2 CordobaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Cordoba
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin81
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan63
- Eder García42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celta de Vigo II and Cordoba drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta de Vigo II at 43% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Aldrine Kibet 24' for Celta de Vigo II, Diego Bri 27' for Cordoba, Alvaro·Marin Sesma 56' for Celta de Vigo II, Victor Sánchez Morales 72' for Cordoba. Sent off: Álex Martín (Cordoba) 45+2', Ismael Ruiz Sánchez (Cordoba) 85'. On expected goals it finished 1.84–0.85.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celta de Vigo II a 25.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 21.3% after a win, 25.7% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.7%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.
For Cordoba the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 9.6% going in: 6.0% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.9%.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Celta de Vigo II v Cordoba has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 51% / 23% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 24% / 33%: the biggest move is Celta de Vigo II's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Celta de Vigo II win43%▼ −8
- Draw24%▲ +1
- Cordoba win33%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.