18 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana
Referee: Sebastian Lozano
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Alianza Atletico 1-4 Universitario.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Alianza Atletico, 26% draw, 31% Universitario — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alianza Atletico at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
Horacio Calcaterra
Stefano Fernández
8'
15'
⚽Román Suárez (OG)
•Steven Rivadeneyra
17'
23'
⚽Andy Poloassist: Edison Flores
Ariel Muñoz
42'
45'
⚽Alex Valeraassist: Gianluca Lapadula
🔁Stefano Fernándezout: Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas
45'
🔁Jorge del Castilloout: Jimmy Perez
45'
🔁José María Ingrattiout: Valentin Robaldo
45'
52'
Anderson Santamaría
⚽Ariel Muñozassist: Cristian Penilla
56'
57'
🔁Edison Floresout: Lisandro Alzugaray
🔁Anthony Gordilloout: Erick Perleche
66'
67'
🔁Jairo Conchaout: Jorge Murrugarra
67'
🔁Gianluca Lapadulaout: José Rivera
🔁Ariel Muñozout: Jairo Molina
75'
80'
🔁Alex Valeraout: Piero Quispe
81'
🔁Horacio Calcaterraout: Héctor Fertoli
82'
⚽Jose Lujan (OG)
Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas
90+2'

Match stats — Alianza Atletico vs Universitario

59%Possession41%
15Shots11
6On target6
9Corners5
0.47xG1.05

Goals against chances

Alianza Atletico1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Universitario4 from 1.05 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alianza Atletico 4-1-4-1
  • 31S. RivadeneyraG
  • 16S. FernándezD
  • 2R. SuarezD
  • 6J. LujánD
  • 24A. GordilloD
  • 10Germán DíazM
  • 23A. MuñozM
  • 15H. LupúM
  • 22J. del CastilloM
  • 17C. PenillaM
  • 27J. IngrattiF
Substitutes
  • 20Jimmy PérezM
  • 95D. PrietoG
  • 9V. RobaldoF
  • 37J. DelgadoM
  • 25W. GuzmánD
  • 11G. LariosF
  • 19J. MendietaD
  • 29J. MolinaF
  • 21E. PerlecheD
Coach: F. Urciuoli
Universitario 3-4-1-2
  • 1D. RomeroG
  • 4A. SantamaríaD
  • 2C. FaraD
  • 3W. RiverosD
  • 24A. PoloM
  • 17J. ConchaM
  • 10H. CalcaterraM
  • 33C. IngaM
  • 19É. FloresM
  • 18G. LapadulaF
  • 20A. ValeraF
Substitutes
  • 8H. FértoliM
  • 29A. CorzoD
  • 30Lisandro Joel AlzugarayF
  • 70J. GutiérrezD
  • 23J. MurrugarraM
  • 39P. QuispeM
  • 15J. RequenaM
  • 25M. VargasG
  • 11J. RiveraF
Coach: F. Bustos

Form going into Alianza Atletico vs Universitario

Alianza Atletico

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Sport Boys11 October 2026

Universitario

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2FBC Melgar11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Alianza Atletico33147124948+149
2Universitario33171065939+2061

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alianza Atletico vs Universitario

  • 26 April 2026Universitario 1–2 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
  • 1 October 2025Alianza Atletico 0–2 UniversitarioPrimera División
  • 11 May 2025Universitario 0–1 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
  • 15 September 2024Alianza Atletico 0–3 UniversitarioPrimera División
  • 6 April 2024Universitario 1–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
  • 4 July 2023Universitario 2–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Alianza Atletico and Universitario

Alianza Atletico

GoalsAssists

  • C. Penilla95

Universitario

GoalsAssists

  • A. Valera182
  • G. Lapadula94

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Universitario won 4–1 at Alianza Atletico. The model had leaned towards a win for Alianza Atletico at 43% and given a win for Universitario 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Román Suárez (own goal) 15' for Universitario, Andy Polo 23' for Universitario, Alex Valera 45' for Universitario, Ariel Muñoz 56' for Alianza Atletico, Jose Lujan (own goal) 82' for Universitario. On expected goals it finished 0.47–1.05.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alianza Atletico a 16.1% chance to finish in the top four: 23.9% after a win, 10.8% after a draw, 6.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.4%, 9.7 points lower than before the match.

For Universitario the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 89.6% going in: 97.8% after a win, 92.2% after a draw, 84.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.8%, 8.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Alianza Atletico v Universitario has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is Alianza Atletico's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Alianza Atletico win43%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Universitario win31%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.