Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Alianza Lima 3-1 Atletico Grau.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Alianza Lima, 28% draw, 18% Atletico Grau — fair odds of 1.85, 3.57 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Alianza Lima at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. DuarteG
- 17L. AdvínculaD
- 6R. GarcésD
- 3M. AntoniD
- 13M. HuamánD
- 5E. PavezM
- 7F. GaiborM
- 27K. QuevedoM
- 20J. VélezM
- 99F. GirottiF
- 8E. CastilloF
- 11A. CanteroF
- 2N. DíazD
- 25G. GentileF
- 9L. RamosF
- 12Á. de la CruzG
- 15J. CastilloM
- 21P. CariM
- 31C. CarbajalD
- 4G. ChávezD
- 1P. ÁlvarezG
- 8C. VásquezD
- 27R. TapiaD
- 2L. AcevedoD
- 3I. TapiaD
- 25G. AlfaroD
- 20A. VásquezM
- 13F. OncoyM
- 5R. GuarderasM
- 7D. BarretoM
- 99A. FernándezF
- 96L. BenítesM
- 33J. CalderónG
- 21E. CorreaM
- 11N. DelgadilloF
- 15P. LavandeiraM
- 6E. RodasD
- 4D. RodríguezD
- 16J. AtaupillcoD
- 24Yamir Ruidíaz MisitichF
Form going into Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Cusco11 October 2026
Atletico Grau
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas8 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 54 | 24 | +30 | 69 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
- 26 April 2026Atletico Grau 0–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 2 October 2025Alianza Lima 2–1 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 10 May 2025Atletico Grau 1–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 18 September 2024Atletico Grau 1–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 15 April 2024Alianza Lima 2–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
Leading scorers: Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo216
Atletico Grau
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alianza Lima beat Atletico Grau 3–1. The model had made a win for Alianza Lima its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kevin Quevedo 11' for Alianza Lima, Aldair Vásquez 44' for Atletico Grau, Erick Castillo 50' for Alianza Lima, Jairo Vélez 83' for Alianza Lima. On expected goals it finished 1.64–0.57.
How the call on Alianza Lima v Atletico Grau has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 48% / 30% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 54% / 28% / 18%: the biggest move is Alianza Lima's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Alianza Lima win54%▲ +6
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Atletico Grau win18%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.