18 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Referee: Augusto Alfredo Menendez Laos
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Cienciano 1-0 UTC Cajamarca.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Cienciano, 22% draw, 17% UTC Cajamarca — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cienciano at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cienciano98%Draw2%UTC Cajamarca0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Ray Sandovalout: Matias Succar
45'
🔁Claudio Nuñezout: Carlos Cabello
45'
⚽Cristian Souzaassist: Carlos Garcés
55'
Marcos Martinich
57'
Carlos Garcés
61'
61'
Arquímedes Figuera
65'
Cristián Molins
69'
🔁Joshua Canttout: Luis Arce
🔁Gerson Barretoout: Henry Caparo
69'
Santiago Arias
70'
•Cristian Souza
74'
75'
🔁Marlon de Jesúsout: Abdiel Arroyo
78'
Arquímedes Figuera
🔁Santiago Ariasout: Gonzalo Aguirre
81'
🔁Carlos Garcésout: Didier La Torre
81'
87'
🔁Adolfo Muñozout: Jhosep Nunez
88'
🔁Francesco Cavagnaout: Dylan Caro

Match stats — Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca

56%Possession44%
25Shots12
6On target5
5Corners1
2.5xG0.55

Goals against chances

Cienciano1 from 2.50 xGless than the chances were worth
UTC Cajamarca0 from 0.55 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cienciano 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. FalcónG
  • 13C. NúñezD
  • 4M. AmondarainD
  • 3K. BecerraD
  • 16M. MartinichD
  • 88G. BarretoM
  • 5S. AriasM
  • 11N. BandieraM
  • 17R. SandovalM
  • 7C. SouzaM
  • 21C. GarcésF
Substitutes
  • 22C. CabelloD
  • 8G. AguirreM
  • 26R. AguilarD
  • 39H. CaparóM
  • 14S. CaveroD
  • 31Í. EspinozaG
  • 18D. La TorreF
  • 19M. SuccarF
  • 27A. YoveraD
Coach: Horacio Melgarejo
UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 1Á. CamposG
  • 17L. GarroD
  • 3M. GanozaD
  • 2B. DuarteD
  • 6F. CavagnaD
  • 15J. CerroM
  • 16A. FigueraM
  • 22D. CamachoM
  • 10M. LliuyaM
  • 19A. MuñozM
  • 9M. de JesúsF
Substitutes
  • 18S. GálvezF
  • 8D. DiosesM
  • 13D. CaroD
  • 21R. BettocchiG
  • 29I. BarriosG
  • 11A. ArroyoF
  • 88L. ArceM
  • 7J. NunezF
Coach: C. Molins

Form going into Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca

Cienciano

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to UCV Moquegua8 October 2026

UTC Cajamarca

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Sporting Cristal11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Cienciano33155135446+850
18UTC Cajamarca3359193858-2014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca

  • 26 April 2026UTC Cajamarca 2–2 CiencianoPrimera División
  • 13 October 2025UTC Cajamarca 0–2 CiencianoPrimera División
  • 24 May 2025Cienciano 6–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 13 September 2024UTC Cajamarca 1–2 CiencianoPrimera División
  • 7 April 2024Cienciano 1–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 8 July 2023Cienciano 2–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División

Leading scorers: Cienciano and UTC Cajamarca

Cienciano

GoalsAssists

  • C. Garcés184
  • A. Hohberg125
  • N. Bandiera91

UTC Cajamarca

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cienciano beat UTC Cajamarca 1–0. The model had made a win for Cienciano its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Cristian Souza 55' for Cienciano. Sent off: Arquímedes Figuera (UTC Cajamarca) 78'. On expected goals it finished 2.50–0.55.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cienciano a 11.8% chance to finish in the top four: 14.8% after a win, 5.9% after a draw, 3.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.8%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cienciano v UTC Cajamarca has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 53% / 25% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Cienciano's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Cienciano win61%▲ +8
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. UTC Cajamarca win17%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.