5 November 2026, 01:30 UTC

Universitario vs Sport Boys Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Monumental, Lima
Referee: Mike Palomino
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Universitario 2-2 Sport Boys.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Universitario, 26% draw, 20% Sport Boys — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Universitario at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universitario0%Draw5%Sport Boys95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Horacio Calcaterra
16'
17'
Hansell Riojas
23'
•Carlos Zambrano
27'
⚽Christian Cueva (pen)
⚽Alex Valera (pen)
42'
🔁César Ingaout: Bryan Reyna
45'
51'
Christian Cueva
56'
Carlos Zambrano
60'
🔁Christian Cuevaout: Percy Liza
🔁Edison Floresout: Lisandro Alzugaray
60'
🔁Anderson Santamaríaout: Jorge Gutiérrez
61'
🔁Lisandro Alzugarayout: Héctor Fertoli
65'
🔁Jairo Conchaout: Piero Quispe
65'
74'
🔁Carlos Zambranoout: Renzo Alfani
74'
🔁Federico Illanesout: Miguel Trauco
82'
🔁Pablo Erustesout: Rolando Diaz
83'
⚽Percy Lizaassist: Rolando Diaz
⚽Alex Valeraassist: Gianluca Lapadula
88'
⚽Caín Faraassist: Andy Polo
90+1'
90+5'
Jostin Alarcon

Match stats — Universitario vs Sport Boys

70%Possession30%
18Shots10
8On target4
7Corners2
2.37xG1.46

Goals against chances

Universitario2 from 2.37 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sport Boys2 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Universitario 3-5-2
  • 25M. VargasG
  • 2C. FaraD
  • 3W. RiverosD
  • 4A. SantamaríaD
  • 24A. PoloM
  • 19É. FloresM
  • 10H. CalcaterraM
  • 17J. ConchaM
  • 33C. IngaM
  • 18G. LapadulaF
  • 20A. ValeraF
Substitutes
  • 1D. RomeroG
  • 29A. CorzoD
  • 30Lisandro Joel AlzugarayF
  • 8H. FértoliM
  • 70J. GutiérrezD
  • 23J. MurrugarraM
  • 39P. QuispeM
  • 77B. ReynaF
  • 11J. RiveraF
Coach: F. Bustos
Sport Boys 4-2-3-1
  • 22D. MeliánG
  • 17E. SabaD
  • 3C. ZambranoD
  • 26H. RiojasD
  • 13M. LlontopD
  • 24O. MoraM
  • 5F. IllanesM
  • 11L. UrrutiM
  • 10J. AlarcónM
  • 99C. CuevaM
  • 32P. ErustesF
Substitutes
  • 33J. DaveyM
  • 14R. DíazF
  • 21A. HuamánM
  • 30P. LizaF
  • 29N. LoyolaD
  • 61J. NolascoG
  • 47M. TraucoD
  • 4R. AlfaniD
  • 2Luciano Francesco Zambrano AliagaD
Coach: C. Desio

Form going into Universitario vs Sport Boys

Universitario

Primera División

  • W3-1away to Atletico Grau1 November 2026
  • W3-0Juan Pablo II College25 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Alianza Atletico18 October 2026

Sport Boys

Primera División

  • W1-0away to Cusco1 November 2026
  • W4-2FC Cajamarca25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Juan Pablo II College17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Universitario33171065939+2061
11Sport Boys331210113735+242

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Universitario vs Sport Boys

  • 12 May 2026Sport Boys 0–0 UniversitarioPrimera División
  • 17 January 2026Universitario 0–1 Sport BoysFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 August 2025Universitario 1–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
  • 9 March 2025Sport Boys 0–2 UniversitarioPrimera División
  • 19 September 2024Universitario 3–0 Sport BoysPrimera División

Leading scorers: Universitario and Sport Boys

Universitario

GoalsAssists

  • A. Valera182
  • G. Lapadula94

Sport Boys

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Universitario and Sport Boys drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Universitario at 54% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Christian Cueva (penalty) 27' for Sport Boys, Percy Liza 83' for Sport Boys, Alex Valera 88' for Universitario, Caín Fara 90+1' for Universitario. On expected goals it finished 2.37–1.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universitario a 98.6% chance to finish in the top two: 100.0% after a win, 98.1% after a draw, 95.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 98.1%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Universitario v Sport Boys has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Universitario's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Universitario win54%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Sport Boys win20%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.