Atletico Grau vs Cusco Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Grau 3-0 Cusco.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Atletico Grau, 30% draw, 37% Cusco — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cusco at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Grau vs Cusco
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. ÁlvarezG
- 4D. RodríguezD
- 27R. TapiaD
- 3I. TapiaD
- 25G. AlfaroD
- 21E. CorreaM
- 5R. GuarderasM
- 10P. de la CruzM
- 15P. LavandeiraM
- 96L. BenítesM
- 99A. FernándezF
- 8C. VásquezD
- 20A. VásquezM
- 24Yamir Ruidíaz MisitichF
- 17H. EspinozaM
- 66A. De la CruzM
- 33J. CalderónG
- 7D. BarretoM
- 2L. AcevedoD
- 13F. OncoyM
- 28P. DíazG
- 24M. RuidíasD
- 8A. FuentesD
- 2C. GamarraD
- 21J. ZevallosD
- 55J. MontañoM
- 22L. ColittoM
- 88D. SotoM
- 10I. ColmanM
- 26N. SilvaM
- 9F. CallejoF
- 17J. Alà GutiérrezM
- 13A. VidalG
- 6Á. AmpueroD
- 37G. ChoiD
- 14C. DiezM
- 77J. HerreraM
- 99Miguel SilveiraM
- 11J. TévezF
- 16O. ValenzuelaM
Form going into Atletico Grau vs Cusco
Atletico Grau
Primera División
- L1-3Universitario1 November 2026
- L0-3away to Cienciano29 October 2026
- D1-1ADT23 October 2026
- L1-3away to Alianza Lima18 October 2026
Cusco
Primera División
- L0-1Sport Boys1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas29 October 2026
- W3-1Sporting Cristal24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Huancayo16 October 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Grau did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Grau conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Grau scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cusco scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cusco conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 6 | Cusco | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Grau vs Cusco
- 23 May 2026Cusco 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 25 October 2025Cusco 1–0 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 19 June 2025Atletico Grau 0–0 CuscoPrimera División
- 7 March 2025Atletico Grau 0–0 CuscoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 28 October 2024Cusco 0–1 Atletico GrauPrimera División
- 17 May 2024Atletico Grau 4–0 CuscoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Atletico Grau and Cusco
Atletico Grau
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Cusco
GoalsAssists
- F. Callejo182
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Grau beat Cusco 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Cusco at 37% and given a win for Atletico Grau 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Patricio Álvarez (penalty) 41' for Atletico Grau, Henri Espinoza 69' for Atletico Grau, Adrián Fernández 80' for Atletico Grau. On expected goals it finished 1.52–1.21.
How the call on Atletico Grau v Cusco has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 33% / 30% / 37%: the biggest move is Atletico Grau's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Atletico Grau win33%▼ −3
- Draw30%=
- Cusco win37%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.