9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
Full time2 – 1

Final score: De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% De Graafschap, 27% draw, 28% Jong Utrecht — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

De Graafschap at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

De Graafschap96%Draw4%Jong Utrecht0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽Wessel Kooy
42'
Emmanuel Chigozie Owen
🔁Kaya Symonsout: Toivo Mero
45'
60'
🔁Jaygo van Ommerenout: Driss Laaouina
🔁Bjorn van Zijlout: gabriele finocchiaro
60'
🔁Jannes Luca·Wieckhoffout: Levi Schoppema
60'
60'
🔁Noa Malik Dundasout: Richie Omorowa
🔁Kyano Kwintout: Julian kania
72'
⚽Fedde De Jongassist: gabriele finocchiaro
74'
74'
🔁Massien Ghaddariout: tijn boggende den
⚽Julian kaniaassist: Nolan Martens
77'
🔁Mark Diemersout: Joran Hardeman
78'
80'
🔁Bjorn Menzoout: Donovan Afrifa
80'
🔁Emmanuel Chigozie Owenout: Levi Rietveld
Joran Hardeman
84'
Julian kania
88'
88'
Wessel Kooy

Match stats — De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht

54%Possession46%
16Shots18
5On target3
6Corners5
1.59xG1.6

Goals against chances

De Graafschap2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth
Jong Utrecht1 from 1.60 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

De Graafschap 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. WieggersG
  • 2J. WieckhoffD
  • 3R. BesselinkD
  • 15T. KokD
  • 16N. MartensD
  • 8D. WarmerdamM
  • 21K. SymonsM
  • 10F. de JongM
  • 23M. DiemersM
  • 7Bjorn van ZijlM
  • 40Kyano KwintF
Substitutes
  • 33R. JonkersG
  • 17N. KanindaF
  • 11T. MeroF
  • 22P. ReversonG
  • 5L. SchoppemaD
  • 28J. TriepM
  • 4J. HardemanD
  • 20Gabriele FinocchiaroM
  • 18Denzel EijkenM
Coach: T. Duivenvoorden
Jong Utrecht 4-3-3
  • 1M. EppinkG
  • 2Yousri SbaiD
  • 3J. SchuldesD
  • 14W. KooyD
  • 5Viggo PlantingaD
  • 6F. PohlM
  • 9N. DundasM
  • 8J. van OmmerenM
  • 11E. C. OwenF
  • 10Massien GhaddariF
  • 7Bjorn MenzoF
Substitutes
  • 20Tijn den BoggendeF
  • 32M. TsankovG
  • 21L. RietveldM
  • 19R. OmorowaF
  • 18D. LaaouinaM
  • 22Matyas HavelkaM
  • 16Kenji GoesM
  • 31Justin EversenG
  • 13A. AslaniM
Coach: Omar Rziki

Form going into De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht

De Graafschap

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to FC Eindhoven3 October 2026

Jong Utrecht

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16De Graafschap144371829-1115
20Jong Utrecht143292334-1111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht

  • 20 February 2026De Graafschap 1–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 8 December 2025Jong Utrecht 2–3 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 20 January 2025Jong Utrecht 1–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 23 August 2024De Graafschap 2–2 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 3 May 2024De Graafschap 2–2 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 24 November 2023Jong Utrecht 2–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht

De Graafschap

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Jong Utrecht

GoalsAssists

  • E. C. Owen60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

De Graafschap beat Jong Utrecht 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for De Graafschap at 45%. The goals: Wessel Kooy 24' for Jong Utrecht, Fedde De Jong 74' for De Graafschap, Julian kania 77' for De Graafschap. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.60.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave De Graafschap a 22.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.6% after a win, 24.2% after a draw, 27.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.6%, 4 points lower than before the match.

For Jong Utrecht the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 37.5% going in: 30.5% after a win, 36.3% after a draw, 41.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.3%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on De Graafschap v Jong Utrecht has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is De Graafschap's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. De Graafschap win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Jong Utrecht win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.