9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

FC Volendam vs Vitesse Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Kras Stadion, Volendam
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Volendam 2-0 Vitesse.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% FC Volendam, 28% draw, 23% Vitesse — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Volendam at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Volendam99%Draw1%Vitesse0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
M. Steffen
11'
Pontus Dahbo
34'
Solomon Bonnah
⚽Luca Blondeauassist: Mike Kleijn
45+1'
🔁Alex Platout: Precious ugwu
62'
72'
🔁Filipe de Carvalho Ferreiraout: Nino Zonneveld
⚽Henk Veermanassist: Nick Doodeman
77'
78'
🔁Youssef Ouallilout: Alexander Büttner
78'
🔁Pontus Dahboout: Eduard·Probst
Precious ugwu
81'
86'
🔁Xiamaro thenuout: Koen Te Veluwe
87'
🔁Solomon Bonnahout: Yuval ranon
Mike Kleijn
88'
🔁Y. Jaber el Maftahiout: Mohammed Belfqih
89'
🔁Henk Veermanout: Frederik Ihler
90'

Match stats — FC Volendam vs Vitesse

61%Possession39%
8Shots18
3On target1
3Corners8
1.07xG1.25

Goals against chances

FC Volendam2 from 1.07 xGmore than the chances were worth
Vitesse0 from 1.25 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Volendam 4-3-3
  • 1H. JurjusG
  • 18N. BukalaD
  • 25Luca BlondeauD
  • 3M. AmevorD
  • 15M. KleijnD
  • 8D. HuismanM
  • 10R. NiemeijerM
  • 6A. PlatM
  • 7N. DoodemanF
  • 9H. VeermanF
  • 21Y. el MaftahiF
Substitutes
  • 5Dean BisschopsD
  • 34M. BelfqihM
  • 67F. IhlerF
  • 63J. HaakmatD
  • 17Miguel Opoku Agyemang
  • 12D. PayneD
  • 11Kayden WolffF
  • 16R. SteurG
  • 29Jesper TielemansF
Coach: E. van de Looi
Vitesse 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. van den BergG
  • 2S. BonnahD
  • 17V. ZumberiD
  • 55M. SteffenD
  • 22Xiamaro ThenuD
  • 6M. SchikoraM
  • 34Y. OuallilM
  • 20F. de CarvalhoM
  • 16P. DahboM
  • 21A. SelloufM
  • 9N. BannisF
Substitutes
  • 42Teun BoschM
  • 31M. BrullG
  • 28A. BüttnerD
  • 33M. MarschalkM
  • 13J. PintoF
  • 27E. ProbstF
  • 11Yuval RanonF
  • 23Jayden SieckerG
  • 7Nino ZonneveldF
Coach: R. Rehm

Form going into FC Volendam vs Vitesse

FC Volendam

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Almere City FC3 October 2026

Vitesse

Eerste Divisie

  • D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FC Volendam157173427+722
11Vitesse135351718-118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Volendam vs Vitesse

  • 17 January 2025FC Volendam 4–0 VitesseEerste Divisie
  • 4 October 2024Vitesse 1–2 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 18 February 2024Vitesse 1–1 FC VolendamEredivisie
  • 11 August 2023FC Volendam 1–2 VitesseEredivisie
  • 18 February 2023FC Volendam 2–0 VitesseEredivisie
  • 17 September 2022Vitesse 1–1 FC VolendamEredivisie

Leading scorers: FC Volendam and Vitesse

FC Volendam

GoalsAssists

  • H. Veerman142
  • R. Niemeijer52

Vitesse

GoalsAssists

  • N. Bannis103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Volendam beat Vitesse 2–0. The model had made a win for FC Volendam its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luca Blondeau 45+1' for FC Volendam, Henk Veerman 77' for FC Volendam. On expected goals it finished 1.07–1.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Volendam a 44.5% chance to finish in the top four: 48.9% after a win, 41.0% after a draw, 37.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.9%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

For Vitesse the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 29.1% going in: 36.6% after a win, 30.1% after a draw, 25.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.4%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Volendam v Vitesse has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is FC Volendam's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. FC Volendam win49%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Vitesse win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.