Dordrecht vs Emmen Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Dordrecht 0-3 Emmen.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Dordrecht, 27% draw, 35% Emmen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Dordrecht at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dordrecht vs Emmen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28T. CoremansG
- 22J. van AkenD
- 4J. PinasD
- 3S. HenderikxD
- 5C. MpanzuD
- 8Senne VugtsM
- 6L. RiccioM
- 11N. RossiM
- 21M. VetkalM
- 10A. OuarghiM
- 9J. de BieF
- 44B. HardleyD
- 29Siginho GerardoF
- 51Lucas GardenierD
- 2A. LechkarD
- 15Y. M'BembaD
- 16L. RománF
- 23L. WoudenbergD
- 18Robin van AstenM
- 1Finn OldenstamG
- 1S. KarssiesG
- 24L. EverinkD
- 25R. KongoloD
- 3Y. Dede-LhommeD
- 17B. Van HoveD
- 21A. HojabrpourM
- 7T. RheinM
- 40S. VeldhuisM
- 12F. QuispelM
- 22M. BreijM
- 9J. CooperF
- 27J. HuijzerM
- 23D. LambersF
- 38Kevin NorderG
- 33K. RoosG
- 15C. SunderM
- 26David TimmermanD
- 4C. ØstergaardD
- 2J. MukehD
- 18V. CarusD
Form going into Dordrecht vs Emmen
Dordrecht
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Den Bosch3 October 2026
Emmen
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Waalwijk3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Dordrecht | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 12 |
| 6 | Emmen | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs Emmen
- 13 February 2026Dordrecht 1–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 19 September 2025Emmen 2–0 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 28 February 2025Dordrecht 3–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 9 August 2024Emmen 1–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 18 May 2024Dordrecht 0–1 EmmenEredivisie
- 14 May 2024Emmen 2–2 DordrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Dordrecht and Emmen
Dordrecht
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- J. Cooper113
- F. Quispel72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Emmen won 3–0 at Dordrecht. The model had leaned towards a win for Dordrecht at 38% and given a win for Emmen 35%. The goals: Jack Cooper Love 29' for Emmen, Freddy Quispel 42' for Emmen, Mustafa Abdullatif 82' for Emmen. On expected goals it finished 1.05–1.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dordrecht a 54.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 48.7% after a win, 55.6% after a draw, 59.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.7%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.
For Emmen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.1% going in: 10.6% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 5.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.6%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.