Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Shakhtar Donetsk 0-0 Zorya Luhansk.
Before kick-off the model made it 75% Shakhtar Donetsk, 16% draw, 9% Zorya Luhansk — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Shakhtar Donetsk at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk
Line-ups
- 31D. RiznykG
- 20O. KaravaevD
- 18A. GhramD
- 22M. MatvienkoD
- 13PedrinhoD
- 29E. NazarynaM
- 99BruninhoM
- 8D. KryskivM
- 14IsaqueM
- 11NewerttonM
- 2L. TraoréF
- 49Luca MeirellesF
- 68P. ObahM
- 9Kauã EliasF
- 77G. MendozaM
- 30Alisson SantanaM
- 27O. OcheretkoM
- 28A. MatturroD
- 17Vinícius TobiasD
- 5V. BondarD
- 1O. SaputinG
- 44I. PerdutaD
- 55JordanD
- 77B. KushnirenkoD
- 39Artem MachelyukD
- 9A. SlesarM
- 6D. PoparaM
- 18M. BoykoM
- 27D. JelavićM
- 28P. BudkivskyiF
- 30I. NesterenkoF
- 7G. RodriguesF
- 10JuninhoD
- 4G. EskinjaD
- 3V. KravetsD
- 5A. JanjiÄD
- 40ÍtaloD
- 21J. BašićM
- 88S. BahM
- 80V. YurchenkoM
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk
Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League
- W2-1Kolos Kovalivka17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026
Zorya Luhansk
Premier League
- W2-1Chornomorets17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Livyi Bereh12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 29 |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk
- 23 April 2026Zorya Luhansk 1–2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 22 September 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 9 May 2025Zorya Luhansk 0–0 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 10 November 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 30 October 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Zorya LuhanskCup
- 22 April 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk
Shakhtar Donetsk
GoalsAssists
- Alisson Santana32
- Kauã Elias30
Zorya Luhansk
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Shakhtar Donetsk at 75% and given a draw 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shakhtar Donetsk a 85.1% chance to finish top of the regular season: 86.6% after a win, 80.3% after a draw, 72.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 80.3%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.
For Zorya Luhansk the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.1% going in: 10.0% after a win, 7.1% after a draw, 5.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.1%, 1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Shakhtar Donetsk v Zorya Luhansk has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 77% / 15% / 8% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 75% / 16% / 9%: the biggest move is Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Shakhtar Donetsk win75%▼ −2
- Draw16%▲ +1
- Zorya Luhansk win9%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.