16 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana 1. SNL prediction & result

Sportni park Aluminij, Kidricevo
Referee: D. Halilovic
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Aluminij 0-1 Olimpija Ljubljana.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Aluminij, 30% draw, 35% Olimpija Ljubljana — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aluminij at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aluminij0%Draw4%Olimpija Ljubljana96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

B. Osuji
13'
13'
I. Tuci
M. Boben
43'
🔁A. Bekavacout: D. Zajsek
46'
🔁H. Sorensenout: I. Svrznjak
46'
50'
J. Urbancic
V. Tezak
59'
61'
M. Cuni
68'
⚽D. Kojic (pen)
72'
🔁D. Mitrovskiout: L. Perea
🔁R. Ramsakout: M. Bajraj
72'
🔁P. Petriskoout: M. Mladenovic
72'
D. Simunic
74'
🔁T. Jagicout: A. Bloudek
81'
90+2'
L. Perea

Form going into Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Aluminij

1. SNL

  • L0-1away to Celje10 October 2026

Olimpija Ljubljana

1. SNL

  • D3-3Mura10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Aluminij154562114+717
4Olimpija Ljubljana156541713+423

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana

  • 2 August 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Aluminij1. SNL
  • 11 April 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 2–1 Aluminij1. SNL
  • 5 February 2026Aluminij 1–2 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
  • 3 October 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–1 Aluminij1. SNL
  • 26 July 2025Aluminij 0–3 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL

The result against the call

Olimpija Ljubljana won 1–0 at Aluminij. The goal: D. Kojic (penalty) 68' for Olimpija Ljubljana.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aluminij a 33.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.8% after a win, 34.9% after a draw, 39.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.4%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

For Olimpija Ljubljana the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 43.9% going in: 51.0% after a win, 42.4% after a draw, 37.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.0%, 7.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.