Mura vs Nafta 1. SNL prediction & result
Final score: Mura 0-0 Nafta.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Mura, 27% draw, 40% Nafta — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Nafta at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 52M. Dajcar
- 77D. Oroian
- 24L. Kitin
- 3A. Zeljkovic
- 56M. Matic
- 21Z. Petrovic
- 18A. Zalaznik
- 10N. Kouter
- 47S. Butic
- 30K. Kurtovic
- 7N. Kasalo
- 33Z. Fermisek
- 17K. Trdin
- 5I. Jelic
- 2F. Sana
- 88A. Korosec
- 23J. Kovacic
- 6F. Jevsenak
- 49P. Pfeifer
- 8L. Bobicanec
- 1L. Erjavsek
- 20A. Ferreira
- 2R. Pirtovsek
- 98A. Dragoner
- 33L. Poredos
- 21S. Omrani
- 18A. Pihler
- 41K. Lavrencic
- 7J. Zorica
- 30M. Vidnyanszky
- 17A. Marosa
- 89E. Nemeth
- 23L. Kambic
- 99A. Micic
- 11A. Jasaragic
- 8M. Ogwuche
- 10L. Pihler
- 90U. Jamiu
- 19A. Sarr
- 16D. Bobson
Form going into Mura vs Nafta
Mura
1. SNL
- D3-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana10 October 2026
Nafta
1. SNL
- W1-0Bravo11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mura | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 14 |
| 6 | Nafta | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mura vs Nafta
- 1 August 2026Nafta 5–2 Mura1. SNL
- 3 December 2025Mura 1–2 NaftaCup
- 5 April 2025Nafta 4–2 Mura1. SNL
- 2 February 2025Mura 0–0 Nafta1. SNL
- 28 September 2024Nafta 0–0 Mura1. SNL
The result against the call
Mura and Nafta drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Nafta at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mura a 81.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 76.4% after a win, 82.3% after a draw, 85.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 82.3%, 1 points higher than before the match.
For Nafta the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 30.9% going in: 36.4% after a win, 28.6% after a draw, 24.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.6%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Mura v Nafta has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 27% / 40%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Mura win33%▲ +1
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Nafta win40%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.