16 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Ayr Utd vs Partick Championship prediction & result

Somerset Park, Ayr
Referee: M. MacDermid
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Ayr Utd 0-1 Partick.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Ayr Utd, 27% draw, 45% Partick — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Partick at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ayr Utd0%Draw3%Partick97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
O. Smyth
45'
⚽O. Smyth (pen)
🔁L. Dickout: T. Hatton
46'
L. McBeth
56'
57'
S. Drozd
62'
🔁E. Hendersonout: A. Fitzpatrick
🔁O. Stirtonout: J. Landers
65'
🔁O. Whyteout: M. Rus
65'
69'
🔁B. Stanwayout: T. Letsosa
🔁R. Lyonout: J. Murphy
72'
75'
L. Ashcroft
76'
🔁T. Wattout: A. Samuel
76'
🔁S. Drozdout: E. Ingram
🔁E. Walkerout: K. Shanks
76'
90'
T. Letsosa
90+1'
A. Fitzpatrick
S. McMann
90+3'
90+3'
B. McPherson

Line-ups

Ayr Utd
  • 1H. Stone
  • 20L. McBeth
  • 5K. Holt
  • 3L. Dick
  • 32D. Watret
  • 12O. Whyte
  • 6R. Lyon
  • 16B. Summers
  • 33S. McMann
  • 7O. Stirton
  • 21E. Walker
Substitutes
  • 38L. Russell
  • 2N. McAllister
  • 8L. King
  • 9J. Landers
  • 10K. Shanks
  • 15J. Murphy
  • 17T. Hatton
  • 23M. Rus
  • 25K. Mitchell
Coach: Gary Naysmith
Partick
  • 1L. Budinauckas
  • 24B. McPherson
  • 5L. Ashcroft
  • 22C. Loughrey
  • 3P. Reading
  • 6B. Dempsey
  • 8O. Smyth
  • 26B. Stanway
  • 7S. Drozd
  • 32T. Watt
  • 10E. Henderson
Substitutes
  • 12L. McFarlane
  • 2C. Logan
  • 11G. Mackay-Steven
  • 9A. Samuel
  • 14R. Crawford
  • 17E. Ingram
  • 20D. O'Reilly
  • 21A. Fitzpatrick
  • 64T. Letsosa

Form going into Ayr Utd vs Partick

Ayr Utd

Championship

  • D1-1Dunfermline10 October 2026

Partick

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Livingston10 October 2026
  • W3-0Arbroath3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Ayr Utd145361719-218
1Partick15942219+1231

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ayr Utd vs Partick

  • 5 September 2026Partick 1–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 4 April 2026Ayr Utd 1–1 PartickChampionship
  • 24 January 2026Partick 2–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 6 December 2025Ayr Utd 0–0 PartickChampionship
  • 21 October 2025Partick 2–1 Ayr UtdChampionship

The result against the call

Partick won 1–0 at Ayr Utd. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Partick at 45%. The goal: O. Smyth (penalty) 45' for Partick.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ayr Utd a 65.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 56.8% after a win, 64.9% after a draw, 70.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.2%, 5 points higher than before the match.

For Partick the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 75.9% going in: 80.1% after a win, 75.0% after a draw, 70.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.1%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.